Ongoing diplomatic tensions between the Trump administration and Brazilian President Lula da Silva center on stalled approval for the U.S. ambassador nominee and reciprocal visa actions, but U.S. officials have repeatedly distinguished the August 2026 visa revocation for Brazilian Ambassador Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti from any formal expulsion. The measure was framed as reversible and non-expulsive, with the diplomat permitted to remain in the United States. No subsequent escalations involving Brazilian diplomats have occurred in the past 30 days, and current negotiations, including scheduled G20 talks, have not produced new triggers. With only days remaining before September 30, traders assign near-certain probability to “No” based on this measured approach and absence of fresh catalysts. A sudden breakdown in talks or new retaliatory steps by either side could still prompt an expulsion before the deadline, though such movement appears limited by the compressed timeline.