Recent below-average rainfall through September 23 has left Central Park at 2.21 inches month-to-date, roughly 1 inch below the 1991-2020 normal, positioning totals near or slightly below the long-term September average of about 4 inches. An approaching coastal low and potential nor’easter this weekend introduce the main uncertainty, with National Weather Service forecasts indicating 30-70% chances of showers Friday through Sunday and quantitative precipitation forecasts adding 0.5-1.5 inches or more depending on the storm’s exact track and duration. These dynamics favor the closely matched 3-4 inch and 4-5 inch bins, as modest additional accumulation would likely keep the month near normal while heavier or prolonged rain could push it higher. Model spread on steering patterns and intensification potential continues to differentiate the leading outcomes.