OpenAI's recent GPT-6 Astra release, with executive comments from president Greg Brockman describing it as potentially marking the "AGI era" and suggesting the model could represent arrival at that threshold, has not triggered an official company announcement that it meets the charter definition of highly autonomous systems outperforming humans at most economically valuable work. Strong self-reported benchmarks on ARC-AGI-3, FrontierMath, ExploitBench, and computer-use tasks, alongside internal progress toward an automated research intern achieved by September 2026, underscore rapid capability gains in large language models and agentic workflows. Yet traders assign 76.5% probability to "No" before 2027 due to OpenAI's measured approach, emphasis on the 2028 automated researcher target, and reluctance to declare victory on a contested AGI benchmark amid safety and alignment considerations. Key upcoming catalysts include any year-end internal system claims or further frontier releases that could shift the consensus.