Recent polling averages place New Zealand's two largest parties nearly level in party vote share, with National and Labour each near 29-30 percent as the November 7 election approaches. Support for minor parties remains elevated, including the Greens, NZ First, ACT, and The Opportunities Party, which fragments the electorate and compresses the gap between the major contenders. Incumbent Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s coalition and opposition leader Chris Hipkins both face soft approval ratings, while undecided voters and shifting preferences among smaller parties sustain volatility. Late-campaign events such as economic data releases, policy announcements, or leadership-focused debates could widen or reverse narrow leads, directly influencing the final popular vote margin.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtNZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
NZ Election: Popular Vote Margin of Victory?
Labour 0-5% 26%
National 0-5% 21%
Labour 10-15% 14%
Labour 5-10% 12%
$20,172 KL.
$20,172 KL.
Oct 31, 2027
Labour 15%+
9%
Labour 10-15%
14%
Labour 5-10%
11%
Labour 0-5%
21%
National 0-5%
34%
National 5-10%
3%
National 10%+
1%
Another Party Wins
1%
Labour 0-5% 26%
National 0-5% 21%
Labour 10-15% 14%
Labour 5-10% 12%
$20,172 KL.
$20,172 KL.
Oct 31, 2027
Labour 15%+
$725 KL.
9%
Labour 10-15%
$5,717 KL.
14%
Labour 5-10%
$770 KL.
11%
Labour 0-5%
$1,475 KL.
21%
National 0-5%
$2,676 KL.
34%
National 5-10%
$938 KL.
3%
National 10%+
$7,467 KL.
1%
Another Party Wins
$405 KL.
1%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Recent polling averages place New Zealand's two largest parties nearly level in party vote share, with National and Labour each near 29-30 percent as the November 7 election approaches. Support for minor parties remains elevated, including the Greens, NZ First, ACT, and The Opportunities Party, which fragments the electorate and compresses the gap between the major contenders. Incumbent Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s coalition and opposition leader Chris Hipkins both face soft approval ratings, while undecided voters and shifting preferences among smaller parties sustain volatility. Late-campaign events such as economic data releases, policy announcements, or leadership-focused debates could widen or reverse narrow leads, directly influencing the final popular vote margin.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Thị trường mở: Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
Khối lượng
$20,172Ngày kết thúc
Nov 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.Recent polling averages place New Zealand's two largest parties nearly level in party vote share, with National and Labour each near 29-30 percent as the November 7 election approaches. Support for minor parties remains elevated, including the Greens, NZ First, ACT, and The Opportunities Party, which fragments the electorate and compresses the gap between the major contenders. Incumbent Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s coalition and opposition leader Chris Hipkins both face soft approval ratings, while undecided voters and shifting preferences among smaller parties sustain volatility. Late-campaign events such as economic data releases, policy announcements, or leadership-focused debates could widen or reverse narrow leads, directly influencing the final popular vote margin.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026. New Zealand uses a mixed-member proportional electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member electorate and one party vote for a political party list.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in terms of party list votes in this election.
The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid party list votes received by the party that wins the most party list votes and the party that wins the second-most party list votes. Percentages of valid party list votes received by each party will be determined by dividing the total number of valid party list votes each of the top two parties receives by the sum of all valid party list votes cast in the election. This market includes party list votes cast by both the general electorate and the Maori electorate.
This market will resolve solely based on party list votes cast in this election. Electorate votes will not be considered.
If two or more parties tie for the most valid party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice.
Khối lượng
$20,172Ngày kết thúc
Nov 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling averages place New Zealand's two largest parties nearly level in party vote share, with National and Labour each near 29-30 percent as the November 7 election approaches. Support for minor parties remains elevated, including the Greens, NZ First, ACT, and The Opportunities Party, which fragments the electorate and compresses the gap between the major contenders. Incumbent Prime Minister Christopher Luxon’s coalition and opposition leader Chris Hipkins both face soft approval ratings, while undecided voters and shifting preferences among smaller parties sustain volatility. Late-campaign events such as economic data releases, policy announcements, or leadership-focused debates could widen or reverse narrow leads, directly influencing the final popular vote margin.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiên quan
NZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote)
56%
Labour
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
55%
Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
50%
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