A strengthening El Niño, with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +3°C in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific and greater than 90% odds of a very strong event through winter 2026-27 per NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, represents the dominant driver of trader sentiment. This pattern typically favors above-normal temperatures across the northern and western United States during fall, which can delay the onset of measurable snowfall relative to historical medians. NOAA’s September outlook reinforces warmer conditions for much of the northern tier, Great Lakes, and Northeast, while precipitation signals remain mixed. Traders monitor weekly ENSO updates, short-range temperature forecasts from the National Weather Service, and any early cold-air intrusions that could produce the season’s first flakes ahead of climatological averages in northern or high-elevation locations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtFirst snow of the 2026 season
$12,123 KL.

Buffalo, NY by October 31
66%

Denver, CO by October 31
80%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
56%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
46%

Boston, MA by November 15
69%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
70%

Chicago, IL by November 15
79%

Denver, CO by November 15
63%

Detroit, MI by November 15
82%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
92%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
50%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
88%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
63%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
79%

Boston, MA by November 30
84%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
93%

Chicago, IL by November 30
82%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
83%

Dallas, TX by November 30
27%

Denver, CO by November 30
99%

Detroit, MI by November 30
87%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
98%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
72%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
94%

Nashville, TN by November 30
29%

New York City, NY by November 30
68%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
89%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
77%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
86%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
75%

Washington, DC by November 30
43%
$12,123 KL.

Buffalo, NY by October 31
66%

Denver, CO by October 31
80%

Minneapolis, MN by October 31
56%

Salt Lake City, UT by October 31
46%

Boston, MA by November 15
69%

Buffalo, NY by November 15
70%

Chicago, IL by November 15
79%

Denver, CO by November 15
63%

Detroit, MI by November 15
82%

Indianapolis, IN by November 15
92%

Kansas City, MO by November 15
50%

Minneapolis, MN by November 15
88%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 15
63%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 15
79%

Boston, MA by November 30
84%

Buffalo, NY by November 30
93%

Chicago, IL by November 30
82%

Cincinnati, OH by November 30
83%

Dallas, TX by November 30
27%

Denver, CO by November 30
99%

Detroit, MI by November 30
87%

Indianapolis, IN by November 30
98%

Kansas City, MO by November 30
72%

Minneapolis, MN by November 30
94%

Nashville, TN by November 30
29%

New York City, NY by November 30
68%

Philadelphia, PA by November 30
89%

Pittsburgh, PA by November 30
77%

Salt Lake City, UT by November 30
86%

St. Louis, MO by November 30
75%

Washington, DC by November 30
43%
Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KDEN (midnight to midnight local time, America/Denver).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KDEN, issued as product CLIDEN. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIDEN.
Thị trường mở: Sep 2, 2026, 4:27 PM ET
Người giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Any amount of snowfall qualifies, including a report of "T" (trace) - snow observed but too little to measure. Once snowfall is reported, this market resolves "Yes" immediately, without waiting for the rest of the window. This market resolves "No" only if no snowfall is reported for any day of the window.
The observation day is the National Weather Service climate day at KDEN (midnight to midnight local time, America/Denver).
Resolution is based on the station's first published snowfall figure for each day, as given in the first final Daily Climate Report for that day. Intermediate reports issued during the day are not used. Subsequent revisions or corrections will not be considered; the first published value is final. A report whose snowfall value is missing (for example, shown as "M") does not count as a published value; the snowfall figure for that day will be taken from the first subsequent report that includes one. If a day's snowfall value is missing but the month-to-date or season-to-date snowfall total in that day's final report is higher than in the previous day's final report, snow fell on that day and this market resolves "Yes". This market resolves as soon as its outcome is determined - "Yes" as soon as any day's report shows snowfall, or "No" as soon as every day of the window has a published snowfall figure and every figure is zero. There is no waiting period. If any day's snowfall figure remains unpublished, the market will remain open until the earlier of the figure being published or the 3rd day after the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, at which point any such day is treated as zero snowfall.
The resolution source for this market is the NWS Daily Climate Report for KDEN, issued as product CLIDEN. That page shows the latest report only; past daily reports are archived on the Iowa Environmental Mesonet at https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/wx/afos/list.phtml?by=pil&pil=CLIDEN.
Người giải quyết
0x65070BE91...A strengthening El Niño, with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +3°C in parts of the eastern equatorial Pacific and greater than 90% odds of a very strong event through winter 2026-27 per NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, represents the dominant driver of trader sentiment. This pattern typically favors above-normal temperatures across the northern and western United States during fall, which can delay the onset of measurable snowfall relative to historical medians. NOAA’s September outlook reinforces warmer conditions for much of the northern tier, Great Lakes, and Northeast, while precipitation signals remain mixed. Traders monitor weekly ENSO updates, short-range temperature forecasts from the National Weather Service, and any early cold-air intrusions that could produce the season’s first flakes ahead of climatological averages in northern or high-elevation locations.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật



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