**Recent polling trends and AfD momentum explain the 70.5% implied probability that AfD receives more votes than the Greens (Grüne) in Berlin’s September 20, 2026, state election.** Latest surveys from early September place AfD at 17–18% and the Greens at 16%, consistent with AfD’s broader gains since the 2023 repeat election (where it received 9.1%). Multiple institutes, including Infratest dimap and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, show AfD holding or extending a narrow lead over the Greens amid national factors such as immigration concerns and economic pressures that have lifted AfD support across Germany. AfD’s strong result in the September 6 Saxony-Anhalt election—securing roughly 44%—has reinforced its upward trajectory in Berlin, where candidate Kristin Brinker’s campaign has emphasized similar themes. The Greens have remained stable to slightly lower in the 15–18% range without comparable recent catalysts. Other parties (Linke, CDU) lead overall polls, but the AfD–Greens matchup favors AfD on current vote-intention data. Traders appear to weigh these consistent polling differentials and AfD’s recent electoral momentum when pricing the market.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAfD
71% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 20, 2026
AfD
71% khả năng
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 20, 2026
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Recent polling trends and AfD momentum explain the 70.5% implied probability that AfD receives more votes than the Greens (Grüne) in Berlin’s September 20, 2026, state election.**
Latest surveys from early September place AfD at 17–18% and the Greens at 16%, consistent with AfD’s broader gains since the 2023 repeat election (where it received 9.1%). Multiple institutes, including Infratest dimap and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, show AfD holding or extending a narrow lead over the Greens amid national factors such as immigration concerns and economic pressures that have lifted AfD support across Germany.
AfD’s strong result in the September 6 Saxony-Anhalt election—securing roughly 44%—has reinforced its upward trajectory in Berlin, where candidate Kristin Brinker’s campaign has emphasized similar themes. The Greens have remained stable to slightly lower in the 15–18% range without comparable recent catalysts. Other parties (Linke, CDU) lead overall polls, but the AfD–Greens matchup favors AfD on current vote-intention data. Traders appear to weigh these consistent polling differentials and AfD’s recent electoral momentum when pricing the market.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Thị trường mở: Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ET
Khối lượng
$3,392Ngày kết thúc
Sep 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Recent polling trends and AfD momentum explain the 70.5% implied probability that AfD receives more votes than the Greens (Grüne) in Berlin’s September 20, 2026, state election.**
Latest surveys from early September place AfD at 17–18% and the Greens at 16%, consistent with AfD’s broader gains since the 2023 repeat election (where it received 9.1%). Multiple institutes, including Infratest dimap and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, show AfD holding or extending a narrow lead over the Greens amid national factors such as immigration concerns and economic pressures that have lifted AfD support across Germany.
AfD’s strong result in the September 6 Saxony-Anhalt election—securing roughly 44%—has reinforced its upward trajectory in Berlin, where candidate Kristin Brinker’s campaign has emphasized similar themes. The Greens have remained stable to slightly lower in the 15–18% range without comparable recent catalysts. Other parties (Linke, CDU) lead overall polls, but the AfD–Greens matchup favors AfD on current vote-intention data. Traders appear to weigh these consistent polling differentials and AfD’s recent electoral momentum when pricing the market.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve to “AfD” if AfD wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than Grüne in the specified election.
This market will resolve to “Grüne” if Grüne wins more valid second votes (Zweitstimme) than AfD in the specified election.
This market will resolve 50-50 if both AfD and Grüne receive exactly the same number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) in the specified election.
This market will resolve solely based on the number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by each specified party.
Valid second votes will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned parties. Votes attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If either party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, this market will resolve 50-50.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Khối lượng
$3,392Ngày kết thúc
Sep 20, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 20, 2026, 2:17 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...**Recent polling trends and AfD momentum explain the 70.5% implied probability that AfD receives more votes than the Greens (Grüne) in Berlin’s September 20, 2026, state election.** Latest surveys from early September place AfD at 17–18% and the Greens at 16%, consistent with AfD’s broader gains since the 2023 repeat election (where it received 9.1%). Multiple institutes, including Infratest dimap and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, show AfD holding or extending a narrow lead over the Greens amid national factors such as immigration concerns and economic pressures that have lifted AfD support across Germany. AfD’s strong result in the September 6 Saxony-Anhalt election—securing roughly 44%—has reinforced its upward trajectory in Berlin, where candidate Kristin Brinker’s campaign has emphasized similar themes. The Greens have remained stable to slightly lower in the 15–18% range without comparable recent catalysts. Other parties (Linke, CDU) lead overall polls, but the AfD–Greens matchup favors AfD on current vote-intention data. Traders appear to weigh these consistent polling differentials and AfD’s recent electoral momentum when pricing the market.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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