No EU member state government has initiated Article 50 withdrawal proceedings or scheduled a binding referendum on exit, with public support for membership remaining strong across the bloc per recent surveys. Isolated opposition voices, including Poland’s Confederation party and Germany’s AfD, have floated EEA-style arrangements or referendums, yet these lack parliamentary majorities or executive backing ahead of 2027 national elections in key states. The two-year negotiation timeline under Article 50 further compresses any realistic path to notification before year-end 2026. Traders assign 97.6% probability to “No” reflecting this stability, though sudden coalition shifts or acute policy crises in euroskeptic capitals could still prompt late notifications.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtAny country withdraws from EU before 2027?
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?
2% khả năng
$166,286 KL.
$166,286 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
2% khả năng
$166,286 KL.
$166,286 KL.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No EU member state government has initiated Article 50 withdrawal proceedings or scheduled a binding referendum on exit, with public support for membership remaining strong across the bloc per recent surveys. Isolated opposition voices, including Poland’s Confederation party and Germany’s AfD, have floated EEA-style arrangements or referendums, yet these lack parliamentary majorities or executive backing ahead of 2027 national elections in key states. The two-year negotiation timeline under Article 50 further compresses any realistic path to notification before year-end 2026. Traders assign 97.6% probability to “No” reflecting this stability, though sudden coalition shifts or acute policy crises in euroskeptic capitals could still prompt late notifications.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ET
Khối lượng
$166,286Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.No EU member state government has initiated Article 50 withdrawal proceedings or scheduled a binding referendum on exit, with public support for membership remaining strong across the bloc per recent surveys. Isolated opposition voices, including Poland’s Confederation party and Germany’s AfD, have floated EEA-style arrangements or referendums, yet these lack parliamentary majorities or executive backing ahead of 2027 national elections in key states. The two-year negotiation timeline under Article 50 further compresses any realistic path to notification before year-end 2026. Traders assign 97.6% probability to “No” reflecting this stability, though sudden coalition shifts or acute policy crises in euroskeptic capitals could still prompt late notifications.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any European Union (EU) member state withdraws from the EU by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An EU member state will be considered to have withdrawn once they officially initiate their withdrawal and/or formally notify the European Council of their intention to withdraw, regardless of whether the withdrawal is finalized after this market’s timeframe.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the European Union and EU member states; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$166,286Ngày kết thúc
Jan 1, 2027Thị trường mở
Dec 7, 2025, 7:10 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...No EU member state government has initiated Article 50 withdrawal proceedings or scheduled a binding referendum on exit, with public support for membership remaining strong across the bloc per recent surveys. Isolated opposition voices, including Poland’s Confederation party and Germany’s AfD, have floated EEA-style arrangements or referendums, yet these lack parliamentary majorities or executive backing ahead of 2027 national elections in key states. The two-year negotiation timeline under Article 50 further compresses any realistic path to notification before year-end 2026. Traders assign 97.6% probability to “No” reflecting this stability, though sudden coalition shifts or acute policy crises in euroskeptic capitals could still prompt late notifications.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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