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Світ·Russia

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

icon for Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
Світ·Russia

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

$3,854,918 Обс.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$3,854,918 Обс.

Polymarket

December 31

$2,806,538 Обс.

6%

June 30, 2027

$3,303 Обс.

12%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. Ukrainian long-range drone strikes intensified in June 2026 against Russian logistics, fuel depots, air defenses, radar stations, and energy infrastructure across occupied Crimea, prompting Russian-installed authorities to declare regional emergencies, ration fuel, restrict civilian movement, and report widespread blackouts and supply disruptions. These operations aim to isolate the peninsula by targeting the Kerch Strait Bridge, rail links, and maritime routes, building on earlier successes that forced relocation of parts of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. As of September 2026, Russian forces continue incremental advances in eastern Ukraine while Ukrainian counteroffensives focus elsewhere, with no reported ground operations to seize Crimean territory. Recapture would require overcoming entrenched Russian defenses, sustained Western support for deeper strikes, and shifts in battlefield momentum or negotiations. Trader assessments reflect these logistical pressures alongside Russia’s military commitment to retaining the 2014-annexed region.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.

The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.

Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Обсяг
$3,854,918
Дата завершення
Jul 1, 2027
Ринок відкрито
May 27, 2026, 6:13 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2027 at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered. Ukrainian long-range drone strikes intensified in June 2026 against Russian logistics, fuel depots, air defenses, radar stations, and energy infrastructure across occupied Crimea, prompting Russian-installed authorities to declare regional emergencies, ration fuel, restrict civilian movement, and report widespread blackouts and supply disruptions. These operations aim to isolate the peninsula by targeting the Kerch Strait Bridge, rail links, and maritime routes, building on earlier successes that forced relocation of parts of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. As of September 2026, Russian forces continue incremental advances in eastern Ukraine while Ukrainian counteroffensives focus elsewhere, with no reported ground operations to seize Crimean territory. Recapture would require overcoming entrenched Russian defenses, sustained Western support for deeper strikes, and shifts in battlefield momentum or negotiations. Trader assessments reflect these logistical pressures alongside Russia’s military commitment to retaining the 2014-annexed region.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.

The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.

Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify. The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify. Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement which gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Обсяг
$3,854,918
Дата завершення
Jul 1, 2027
Ринок відкрито
May 27, 2026, 6:13 PM ET

Вирішувач

0x65070BE91...

Пов'язане

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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.

Часті запитання

«Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?» — це ринок прогнозів на Polymarket з 3 можливими результатами, де трейдери купують і продають акції залежно від того, що, на їхню думку, станеться. Поточний лідер — «June 30, 2027» з 12%, далі «December 31» з 6%. Ціни відображають краудсорсингові ймовірності в реальному часі. Акції правильного результату погашаються по $1 кожна при вирішенні ринку.

Станом на сьогодні, «Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?» згенерував $3.9 million загального обсягу торгів з моменту запуску ринку Sep 23, 2025. Цей рівень торгової активності відображає сильну залученість спільноти Polymarket та забезпечує, що поточні шанси базуються на глибокому пулі учасників ринку. Ви можете відстежувати рухи цін наживо та торгувати будь-яким результатом прямо на цій сторінці.

Щоб торгувати на «Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?», перегляньте 3 доступних результатів на цій сторінці. Кожен результат відображає поточну ціну — ймовірність ринку. Оберіть результат, оберіть «Так» чи «Ні», введіть суму та натисніть «Торгувати». Якщо ваш вибір правильний при вирішенні, акції «Так» виплачують $1. Якщо ні — $0. Ви також можете продати акції в будь-який час до вирішення.

Поточний фаворит для «Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?» — «June 30, 2027» з 12%. Наступний — «December 31» з 6%. Ці шанси оновлюються в реальному часі, коли трейдери купують і продають акції. Слідкуйте за змінами шансів з появою нової інформації.

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