Macron’s second and final term, ending in May 2027 ahead of the April presidential election, has produced no announced timetable or acute parliamentary deadlock that would prompt a referendum under Article 11 or 89 by December 31. Legislative priorities such as the assisted-dying law advanced through parliament, while revised social-media restrictions are being prepared for ordinary legislation rather than direct popular vote. Repeated earlier references to referendums have not materialized amid a fragmented National Assembly and the start of the campaign season. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of any current catalyst. An unforeseen constitutional standoff or major policy impasse could still trigger invocation of Article 11, though no such development is signaled.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено3% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
3% шанс
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Macron’s second and final term, ending in May 2027 ahead of the April presidential election, has produced no announced timetable or acute parliamentary deadlock that would prompt a referendum under Article 11 or 89 by December 31. Legislative priorities such as the assisted-dying law advanced through parliament, while revised social-media restrictions are being prepared for ordinary legislation rather than direct popular vote. Repeated earlier references to referendums have not materialized amid a fragmented National Assembly and the start of the campaign season. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of any current catalyst. An unforeseen constitutional standoff or major policy impasse could still trigger invocation of Article 11, though no such development is signaled.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ET
Обсяг
$78Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Macron’s second and final term, ending in May 2027 ahead of the April presidential election, has produced no announced timetable or acute parliamentary deadlock that would prompt a referendum under Article 11 or 89 by December 31. Legislative priorities such as the assisted-dying law advanced through parliament, while revised social-media restrictions are being prepared for ordinary legislation rather than direct popular vote. Repeated earlier references to referendums have not materialized amid a fragmented National Assembly and the start of the campaign season. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of any current catalyst. An unforeseen constitutional standoff or major policy impasse could still trigger invocation of Article 11, though no such development is signaled.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Emmanuel Macron convenes the electorate for a nationwide referendum between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
To qualify, the Journal officiel de la République française must publish a presidential decree, signed by Emmanuel Macron, deciding to submit a text to a nationwide referendum, for example, through Article 11, Article 89, or via the référendum d’initiative partagée (RIP). Any such decree will qualify, even if the President did not support the initiative.
A mere public announcement from Emmanuel Macron will not suffice. Any referendum initiated through any procedure not requiring a presidential decree will not qualify.
If Emmanuel Macron ceases to be President of France before issuing a qualifying presidential decree, this market will resolve to "No" immediately.
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying decree is officially published, regardless of when and whether a referendum is held.
The primary resolution source will be the Journal officiel "Lois et Décrets" on Légifrance (https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/jorf/jo); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Обсяг
$78Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Aug 21, 2026, 2:12 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Macron’s second and final term, ending in May 2027 ahead of the April presidential election, has produced no announced timetable or acute parliamentary deadlock that would prompt a referendum under Article 11 or 89 by December 31. Legislative priorities such as the assisted-dying law advanced through parliament, while revised social-media restrictions are being prepared for ordinary legislation rather than direct popular vote. Repeated earlier references to referendums have not materialized amid a fragmented National Assembly and the start of the campaign season. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability to “No,” reflecting the absence of any current catalyst. An unforeseen constitutional standoff or major policy impasse could still trigger invocation of Article 11, though no such development is signaled.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання