President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China sparked initial market activity, but subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright emphasized non-explosive subcritical experiments and system tests at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations. No explosive nuclear test has occurred since the 1992 moratorium, and stockpile stewardship programs continue to certify reliability without them. Accusations of low-yield Chinese activity in 2020 and New START's February 2026 expiration heightened scrutiny, yet technical, legal, and diplomatic barriers persist. Trader consensus reflects these constraints, with low implied probabilities for an explosive test by late 2026 absent major policy shifts or verified escalatory developments.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоЯдерне випробування США...?
Ядерне випробування США...?
$795,296 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
30 вересня 2026 року
1%
31 грудня 2026 року
6%
$795,296 Обс.
30 вересня 2026 року
$57,565 Обс.
1%
31 грудня 2026 року
$76,920 Обс.
6%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China sparked initial market activity, but subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright emphasized non-explosive subcritical experiments and system tests at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations. No explosive nuclear test has occurred since the 1992 moratorium, and stockpile stewardship programs continue to certify reliability without them. Accusations of low-yield Chinese activity in 2020 and New START's February 2026 expiration heightened scrutiny, yet technical, legal, and diplomatic barriers persist. Trader consensus reflects these constraints, with low implied probabilities for an explosive test by late 2026 absent major policy shifts or verified escalatory developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ET
Обсяг
$795,296Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China sparked initial market activity, but subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright emphasized non-explosive subcritical experiments and system tests at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations. No explosive nuclear test has occurred since the 1992 moratorium, and stockpile stewardship programs continue to certify reliability without them. Accusations of low-yield Chinese activity in 2020 and New START's February 2026 expiration heightened scrutiny, yet technical, legal, and diplomatic barriers persist. Trader consensus reflects these constraints, with low implied probabilities for an explosive test by late 2026 absent major policy shifts or verified escalatory developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US conducts a nuclear test by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
A nuclear test is defined as the intentional non-combat detonation of a device by the US that produces a nuclear chain reaction (fission or fusion), regardless of yield.
Accidents, radiological dispersal devices (bombs that spread radioactive material using conventional explosives such as "dirty bombs"), or actions by third parties will not count toward this market's resolution.
Tests not explicitly claimed by US may still qualify if a clear consensus of credible reporting attributes the nuclear detonation to US. For example, an unclaimed nuclear test analogous to the 1979 "Vela Incident" would count if credible reporting attributes it to the US.
The resolution source for this market will be a broad consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$795,296Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 3:32 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...President Trump's October 2025 directive to resume U.S. nuclear testing "on an equal basis" with Russia and China sparked initial market activity, but subsequent clarifications from Energy Secretary Chris Wright emphasized non-explosive subcritical experiments and system tests at the Nevada National Security Site rather than full-yield detonations. No explosive nuclear test has occurred since the 1992 moratorium, and stockpile stewardship programs continue to certify reliability without them. Accusations of low-yield Chinese activity in 2020 and New START's February 2026 expiration heightened scrutiny, yet technical, legal, and diplomatic barriers persist. Trader consensus reflects these constraints, with low implied probabilities for an explosive test by late 2026 absent major policy shifts or verified escalatory developments.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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