Morena holds the leading position in trader assessments for the Sonora state congress outcome at 64 percent implied probability, reflecting its current 11-seat plurality in the legislature and broad national dominance across 26 state congresses ahead of the June 2027 renewal. The party benefits from established voter bases in the state, coordination with allies PT and PVEM on coalition strategy, and recent polling advantages for its gubernatorial prospects that typically align with legislative performance. The formal start of the federal and local electoral processes in late September 2026, including INE council installation in Sonora and IEE preparatory steps, has reinforced expectations of continuity rather than major shifts. Smaller shares for MC, PT, PAN, PVEM, and PRI align with their more limited current representation and weaker recent survey showings in the state.