**Strong opening momentum for the Zach Cregger-directed “Resident Evil” reboot has given way to expectations of a sizable second-weekend drop, driving heavy trader consensus toward a sub-$26 million frame.** The film debuted to a franchise-best $60.15 million domestically on September 18–20, well above the $40–50 million tracking range, fueled by excellent reviews (95% on Rotten Tomatoes from critics and strong audience scores), B+ CinemaScore, and positive word-of-mouth that expanded beyond core horror and gaming fans. Typical front-loading for R-rated horror and video-game adaptations, combined with a crowded weekend featuring new wide releases such as *Avengers: Endgame Encore*, *Primetime*, *Heart of the Beast*, and *Forgotten Island*, points to a 55–60% decline. Industry forecasts cluster in the $21–26 million range, with most leaning toward the low-to-mid $20s. This aligns with the market’s 82.5% implied probability on <26m, reflecting skin-in-the-game assessment of the film’s legs after its outsized debut rather than any reversal in critical or audience reception. Upcoming daily tracking and Thursday previews will provide the final read on whether word-of-mouth can push it toward the higher buckets.