Morena holds an 82% implied probability as the Oaxaca Congress election winner due to its decisive 2024 state election results, where the party and its allies secured a commanding majority of the 42 seats through strong performance in both single-member districts and proportional representation. Recent INEGI data from September 2026 confirms Morena and partners PVEM and PT control over 80% of the legislature, enabling consistent passage of priority measures such as the October 2026 Guardia Nacional reform. Opposition parties including PRI, PAN, and MC trail significantly, reflecting limited electoral gains and weaker voter support in the state's key regions. Trader consensus aligns with this established dominance heading into the 2027 cycle, with no major shifts reported in the past month.