The district's entrenched Republican tilt, rated Solid or Safe R by forecasters with an R+11 partisan voting index, underpins Darin LaHood's dominant position as the incumbent seeking reelection on November 3, 2026. LaHood's established name recognition, family political legacy in the region, unopposed Republican primary, and overwhelming fundraising edge—holding millions in cash on hand against Paul Nolley's far smaller resources—have reinforced trader consensus. Nolley, the Democratic nominee focused on working-class and labor priorities from the Rockford area, faces structural barriers in this rural northern Illinois seat. A realistic shift would require an unusually strong national midterm environment for Democrats, a major late-cycle development such as a scandal or health event, or exceptional opposition turnout and spending that overcomes the district's baseline.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIL-16 House Election Winner
IL-16 House Election Winner
$38,726 Обс.
$38,726 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Darin LaHood (R)
94%
Paul Nolley (D)
7%
$38,726 Обс.
$38,726 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Darin LaHood (R)
$15,407 Обс.
94%
Paul Nolley (D)
$23,319 Обс.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's entrenched Republican tilt, rated Solid or Safe R by forecasters with an R+11 partisan voting index, underpins Darin LaHood's dominant position as the incumbent seeking reelection on November 3, 2026. LaHood's established name recognition, family political legacy in the region, unopposed Republican primary, and overwhelming fundraising edge—holding millions in cash on hand against Paul Nolley's far smaller resources—have reinforced trader consensus. Nolley, the Democratic nominee focused on working-class and labor priorities from the Rockford area, faces structural barriers in this rural northern Illinois seat. A realistic shift would require an unusually strong national midterm environment for Democrats, a major late-cycle development such as a scandal or health event, or exceptional opposition turnout and spending that overcomes the district's baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Обсяг
$38,726Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The district's entrenched Republican tilt, rated Solid or Safe R by forecasters with an R+11 partisan voting index, underpins Darin LaHood's dominant position as the incumbent seeking reelection on November 3, 2026. LaHood's established name recognition, family political legacy in the region, unopposed Republican primary, and overwhelming fundraising edge—holding millions in cash on hand against Paul Nolley's far smaller resources—have reinforced trader consensus. Nolley, the Democratic nominee focused on working-class and labor priorities from the Rockford area, faces structural barriers in this rural northern Illinois seat. A realistic shift would require an unusually strong national midterm environment for Democrats, a major late-cycle development such as a scandal or health event, or exceptional opposition turnout and spending that overcomes the district's baseline.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-16 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$38,726Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...The district's entrenched Republican tilt, rated Solid or Safe R by forecasters with an R+11 partisan voting index, underpins Darin LaHood's dominant position as the incumbent seeking reelection on November 3, 2026. LaHood's established name recognition, family political legacy in the region, unopposed Republican primary, and overwhelming fundraising edge—holding millions in cash on hand against Paul Nolley's far smaller resources—have reinforced trader consensus. Nolley, the Democratic nominee focused on working-class and labor priorities from the Rockford area, faces structural barriers in this rural northern Illinois seat. A realistic shift would require an unusually strong national midterm environment for Democrats, a major late-cycle development such as a scandal or health event, or exceptional opposition turnout and spending that overcomes the district's baseline.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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