Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured the nomination in Hawaii's 1st congressional district after defeating a progressive primary challenger in August, positioning him against Republican nominee Adriel Lam in the November general election. The district's pronounced Democratic lean, reflected in its D+13 partisan voting index and consistent Democratic control for decades, underpins the current trader consensus favoring Case. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic based on historical margins and limited Republican infrastructure. A narrow path for Lam would require an unusual national political realignment, significant local turnout shifts, or late developments such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent between now and election day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHI-01 House Election Winner
HI-01 House Election Winner
$35,619 Обс.
$35,619 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Ed Case (D)
95%
Adriel Lam (R)
5%
$35,619 Обс.
$35,619 Обс.
Nov 2, 2026
Ed Case (D)
$15,153 Обс.
95%
Adriel Lam (R)
$20,465 Обс.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured the nomination in Hawaii's 1st congressional district after defeating a progressive primary challenger in August, positioning him against Republican nominee Adriel Lam in the November general election. The district's pronounced Democratic lean, reflected in its D+13 partisan voting index and consistent Democratic control for decades, underpins the current trader consensus favoring Case. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic based on historical margins and limited Republican infrastructure. A narrow path for Lam would require an unusual national political realignment, significant local turnout shifts, or late developments such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent between now and election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Обсяг
$35,619Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured the nomination in Hawaii's 1st congressional district after defeating a progressive primary challenger in August, positioning him against Republican nominee Adriel Lam in the November general election. The district's pronounced Democratic lean, reflected in its D+13 partisan voting index and consistent Democratic control for decades, underpins the current trader consensus favoring Case. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic based on historical margins and limited Republican infrastructure. A narrow path for Lam would require an unusual national political realignment, significant local turnout shifts, or late developments such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent between now and election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the HI-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$35,619Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETВирішувач
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Ed Case secured the nomination in Hawaii's 1st congressional district after defeating a progressive primary challenger in August, positioning him against Republican nominee Adriel Lam in the November general election. The district's pronounced Democratic lean, reflected in its D+13 partisan voting index and consistent Democratic control for decades, underpins the current trader consensus favoring Case. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic based on historical margins and limited Republican infrastructure. A narrow path for Lam would require an unusual national political realignment, significant local turnout shifts, or late developments such as a major scandal or health event affecting the incumbent between now and election day.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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