Expanded eligibility to roughly 2.5 million voters, including first-time participation by 16- and 17-year-olds plus higher naturalization numbers, has enlarged the electorate beyond the 2.43 million recorded for the 2023 repeat election. A tight multi-party contest featuring CDU, Linke, Greens, and AfD in the low-to-mid 20 percent range, alongside recent AfD gains elsewhere in Germany, has intensified mobilization efforts across the political spectrum. State election commission preparations, including more polling stations, further support expectations of elevated participation on 20 September. While adverse weather or unforeseen last-minute developments could moderate the increase, the structural expansion of the voter base and sustained campaign intensity underpin the strong trader consensus that turnout will exceed the prior 62.9 percent benchmark.