Trader consensus around a 97.5% probability of no EU withdrawal before 2027 stems from the absence of any Article 50 notifications or active exit processes among the 27 member states. Post-Brexit experience has led major parties across Europe to drop referendum pledges in favor of internal reform or negotiation, while public support for membership remains high in most countries. The compressed timeline through late 2026 further constrains feasibility, as any withdrawal requires domestic constitutional steps, European Council notification, and extended negotiations. Limited fringe advocacy persists in isolated cases such as Poland, yet lacks governing majorities or broad electoral momentum. Late developments capable of shifting odds include abrupt governmental changes or unforeseen crises that accelerate formal exit procedures.