Nigel Farage resigned his Clacton seat in July 2026 amid a parliamentary standards inquiry into an undeclared £5 million gift, triggering a by-election he won back on 13 August with 63% of the vote. The probe has since resumed, with any finding of breach potentially leading to suspension and a recall petition under Commons rules. Major parties boycotted the August contest, and no new vacancy has arisen since Farage returned to the Commons in early September. Procedural steps—including committee review, possible House vote, and petition thresholds—make a second by-election before year-end improbable, aligning with traders’ 75% probability on “No.” Scheduled standards reporting timelines and the absence of fresh triggers reinforce this positioning.