The January 2026 U.S. operation that captured Nicolás Maduro and enabled an interim government under Delcy Rodríguez shifted dynamics toward negotiated economic and security arrangements rather than sustained territorial operations. Subsequent U.S. oil agreements granting majority stakes in major fields, partial sanctions relief, reopened diplomatic channels, and joint actions against groups like Tren de Aragua have delivered influence through contracts and cooperation. Trader consensus reflects low implied probability of a military offensive aimed at establishing control over Venezuelan territory, given the absence of large-scale ground deployments or new strikes meeting resolution criteria since early 2026. Key variables include the stability of transition talks, enforcement of oil revenue terms, and any escalation in counternarcotics or regional security demands that could alter the current non-invasion path.