The Philippine Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, which opened on July 6, 2026, after a second House vote transmitting articles on misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth, bribery, and grave threats, remains closely balanced at a 50% implied probability of conviction by year-end. A two-thirds threshold of 16 out of 24 senator-judges is required, and the presence of a Duterte-aligned bloc has limited prosecutorial momentum despite the House's 257-25 margin. Ongoing proceedings, including the prosecution's recent completion of evidence on confidential funds and shift to wealth allegations, procedural disputes over presiding authority and vote counts, and scheduled rulings on evidence admissibility, sustain uncertainty. Developments such as testimony from key witnesses, any Senate decision on the conviction threshold, shifts in senator alignments, or further legal challenges could alter the balance before the December 31 resolution window.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWill the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
Will the Philippine Senate convict Sara Duterte?
50% tsansa
$12,516 Vol.
$12,516 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
50% tsansa
$12,516 Vol.
$12,516 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The Philippine Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, which opened on July 6, 2026, after a second House vote transmitting articles on misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth, bribery, and grave threats, remains closely balanced at a 50% implied probability of conviction by year-end. A two-thirds threshold of 16 out of 24 senator-judges is required, and the presence of a Duterte-aligned bloc has limited prosecutorial momentum despite the House's 257-25 margin. Ongoing proceedings, including the prosecution's recent completion of evidence on confidential funds and shift to wealth allegations, procedural disputes over presiding authority and vote counts, and scheduled rulings on evidence admissibility, sustain uncertainty. Developments such as testimony from key witnesses, any Senate decision on the conviction threshold, shifts in senator alignments, or further legal challenges could alter the balance before the December 31 resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Binuksan ang Market: May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ET
Volume
$12,516Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.The Philippine Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, which opened on July 6, 2026, after a second House vote transmitting articles on misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth, bribery, and grave threats, remains closely balanced at a 50% implied probability of conviction by year-end. A two-thirds threshold of 16 out of 24 senator-judges is required, and the presence of a Duterte-aligned bloc has limited prosecutorial momentum despite the House's 257-25 margin. Ongoing proceedings, including the prosecution's recent completion of evidence on confidential funds and shift to wealth allegations, procedural disputes over presiding authority and vote counts, and scheduled rulings on evidence admissibility, sustain uncertainty. Developments such as testimony from key witnesses, any Senate decision on the conviction threshold, shifts in senator alignments, or further legal challenges could alter the balance before the December 31 resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Senate of the Philippines convicts Sara Duterte of any of the articles of impeachment passed by the House of Representatives of the Philippines in May, 2026 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
This market may resolve early in favor of "No" if the Senate rejects, remands, or otherwise disposes of all of the relevant articles of impeachment without convicting Duterte.
The primary resolution source is the Senate of the Philippines and other official information from the government of the Philippines, however other credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$12,516Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2026Binuksan ang Market
May 21, 2026, 1:37 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Philippine Senate impeachment trial of Vice President Sara Duterte, which opened on July 6, 2026, after a second House vote transmitting articles on misuse of confidential funds, unexplained wealth, bribery, and grave threats, remains closely balanced at a 50% implied probability of conviction by year-end. A two-thirds threshold of 16 out of 24 senator-judges is required, and the presence of a Duterte-aligned bloc has limited prosecutorial momentum despite the House's 257-25 margin. Ongoing proceedings, including the prosecution's recent completion of evidence on confidential funds and shift to wealth allegations, procedural disputes over presiding authority and vote counts, and scheduled rulings on evidence admissibility, sustain uncertainty. Developments such as testimony from key witnesses, any Senate decision on the conviction threshold, shifts in senator alignments, or further legal challenges could alter the balance before the December 31 resolution window.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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