Recent crude oil prices near $83 per barrel for WTI have supported U.S. regular gasoline averages around $4.10–$4.15 per gallon as of early September 2026, with Labor Day marking a record high near $4.15 amid lingering geopolitical pressures. The primary near-term catalyst is the ongoing shift to cheaper winter-blend gasoline, accelerated by the EPA’s early-September waiver, which typically exerts downward pressure on pump prices through lower refining costs and reduced summer-formula demand. Ample refinery utilization near 97% of capacity and inventories running 6% below seasonal norms have kept premiums elevated, yet forward curves and EIA forecasts point to modest softening into late September. Key upcoming data points include weekly EIA inventory reports and any further crude volatility tied to global supply dynamics, with trader-implied odds reflecting uncertainty over whether prices can sustain or exceed key thresholds like $4.30–$4.50 before month-end.