Taiwan's Ministry of National Defense assessed in its 2026 China Military Power Report that the People's Liberation Army still lacks adequate amphibious lift, logistics, and multi-domain superiority for a full-scale invasion, despite ongoing modernization and gray-zone activities such as air incursions and coast guard patrols. U.S. intelligence assessments have similarly concluded that Beijing views a near-term amphibious operation as a high-risk gamble and continues to prioritize peaceful reunification alongside incremental pressure tactics. Taiwan has accelerated defense spending, drone integration, and live-fire exercises under President Lai Ching-te, while China has faced senior military purges that complicate complex operational readiness. These factors, combined with the absence of major escalatory triggers in recent months, underpin the market's strong consensus against an invasion by the June 2027 resolution date.