Recent assessments from Taiwan’s defense ministry and U.S. intelligence indicate the People’s Liberation Army still lacks adequate amphibious lift, logistics, and joint landing capacity for a successful full-scale invasion of Taiwan by late 2027. Xi Jinping’s extensive senior military purges have further disrupted command readiness and operational competence. Beijing continues to emphasize coercive measures such as coast guard patrols, blockade rehearsals, and air-sea pressure rather than kinetic invasion, while reiterating a preference for peaceful reunification without renouncing force. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 88.5% implied probability for “No,” consistent with historical patterns where capability shortfalls and strategic patience have delayed major cross-strait military action.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update12% tsansa
$3,236,740 Vol.
$3,236,740 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Kumita ng 3.25%
12% tsansa
$3,236,740 Vol.
$3,236,740 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
Kumita ng 3.25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent assessments from Taiwan’s defense ministry and U.S. intelligence indicate the People’s Liberation Army still lacks adequate amphibious lift, logistics, and joint landing capacity for a successful full-scale invasion of Taiwan by late 2027. Xi Jinping’s extensive senior military purges have further disrupted command readiness and operational competence. Beijing continues to emphasize coercive measures such as coast guard patrols, blockade rehearsals, and air-sea pressure rather than kinetic invasion, while reiterating a preference for peaceful reunification without renouncing force. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 88.5% implied probability for “No,” consistent with historical patterns where capability shortfalls and strategic patience have delayed major cross-strait military action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$3,236,740Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2028Binuksan ang Market
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent assessments from Taiwan’s defense ministry and U.S. intelligence indicate the People’s Liberation Army still lacks adequate amphibious lift, logistics, and joint landing capacity for a successful full-scale invasion of Taiwan by late 2027. Xi Jinping’s extensive senior military purges have further disrupted command readiness and operational competence. Beijing continues to emphasize coercive measures such as coast guard patrols, blockade rehearsals, and air-sea pressure rather than kinetic invasion, while reiterating a preference for peaceful reunification without renouncing force. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 88.5% implied probability for “No,” consistent with historical patterns where capability shortfalls and strategic patience have delayed major cross-strait military action.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$3,236,740Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2028Binuksan ang Market
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent assessments from Taiwan’s defense ministry and U.S. intelligence indicate the People’s Liberation Army still lacks adequate amphibious lift, logistics, and joint landing capacity for a successful full-scale invasion of Taiwan by late 2027. Xi Jinping’s extensive senior military purges have further disrupted command readiness and operational competence. Beijing continues to emphasize coercive measures such as coast guard patrols, blockade rehearsals, and air-sea pressure rather than kinetic invasion, while reiterating a preference for peaceful reunification without renouncing force. These factors underpin trader consensus reflected in the 88.5% implied probability for “No,” consistent with historical patterns where capability shortfalls and strategic patience have delayed major cross-strait military action.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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