The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season remains exceptionally quiet as of late September, with only tropical storms recorded and no hurricanes forming to date—the latest such delay in the satellite era. Persistent El Niño conditions have strengthened upper-level wind shear across the main development region, inhibiting organization and intensification while sea surface temperatures and steering patterns favor fewer and weaker systems. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University anticipated a below-normal season with just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson scale) overall and sharply reduced U.S. landfall probabilities. With peak activity winding down and limited time remaining before November 30, the window for a Category 4 storm (130–156 mph sustained winds) to develop, track toward the continental U.S., and intensify sufficiently has narrowed considerably. A late-season Gulf or Caribbean system undergoing rapid intensification could still alter outcomes, though current model consensus and atmospheric conditions make this unlikely.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
9% tsansa
$343,898 Vol.
$343,898 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
9% tsansa
$343,898 Vol.
$343,898 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season remains exceptionally quiet as of late September, with only tropical storms recorded and no hurricanes forming to date—the latest such delay in the satellite era. Persistent El Niño conditions have strengthened upper-level wind shear across the main development region, inhibiting organization and intensification while sea surface temperatures and steering patterns favor fewer and weaker systems. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University anticipated a below-normal season with just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson scale) overall and sharply reduced U.S. landfall probabilities. With peak activity winding down and limited time remaining before November 30, the window for a Category 4 storm (130–156 mph sustained winds) to develop, track toward the continental U.S., and intensify sufficiently has narrowed considerably. A late-season Gulf or Caribbean system undergoing rapid intensification could still alter outcomes, though current model consensus and atmospheric conditions make this unlikely.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Volume
$343,898Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season remains exceptionally quiet as of late September, with only tropical storms recorded and no hurricanes forming to date—the latest such delay in the satellite era. Persistent El Niño conditions have strengthened upper-level wind shear across the main development region, inhibiting organization and intensification while sea surface temperatures and steering patterns favor fewer and weaker systems. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University anticipated a below-normal season with just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson scale) overall and sharply reduced U.S. landfall probabilities. With peak activity winding down and limited time remaining before November 30, the window for a Category 4 storm (130–156 mph sustained winds) to develop, track toward the continental U.S., and intensify sufficiently has narrowed considerably. A late-season Gulf or Caribbean system undergoing rapid intensification could still alter outcomes, though current model consensus and atmospheric conditions make this unlikely.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Volume
$343,898Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season remains exceptionally quiet as of late September, with only tropical storms recorded and no hurricanes forming to date—the latest such delay in the satellite era. Persistent El Niño conditions have strengthened upper-level wind shear across the main development region, inhibiting organization and intensification while sea surface temperatures and steering patterns favor fewer and weaker systems. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University anticipated a below-normal season with just 0–2 major hurricanes (Category 3+ on the Saffir-Simpson scale) overall and sharply reduced U.S. landfall probabilities. With peak activity winding down and limited time remaining before November 30, the window for a Category 4 storm (130–156 mph sustained winds) to develop, track toward the continental U.S., and intensify sufficiently has narrowed considerably. A late-season Gulf or Caribbean system undergoing rapid intensification could still alter outcomes, though current model consensus and atmospheric conditions make this unlikely.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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