**Viktor Orbán lost power in Hungary’s April 2026 parliamentary election to Péter Magyar’s Tisza party, ending 16 years in office.** The new government has prioritized anti-corruption efforts, including asset-recovery bodies, parliamentary inquiries, and probes into alleged Orbán-era misuse of public funds, EU grants, and state contracts. Specific cases under examination include the 2026 Ukrainian “gold convoy” incident and National Cultural Fund grants, with raids on Fidesz-linked sites and questioning of former officials. While motions referencing Orbán have surfaced and lower-level figures face charges or detention, no arrest warrant or charges against him personally have advanced to that stage. With only months remaining until the December 31 deadline and ongoing procedural and evidentiary requirements, traders assign high probability to no arrest occurring.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update10% tsansa
$38,502 Vol.
$38,502 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
10% tsansa
$38,502 Vol.
$38,502 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Viktor Orbán lost power in Hungary’s April 2026 parliamentary election to Péter Magyar’s Tisza party, ending 16 years in office.** The new government has prioritized anti-corruption efforts, including asset-recovery bodies, parliamentary inquiries, and probes into alleged Orbán-era misuse of public funds, EU grants, and state contracts. Specific cases under examination include the 2026 Ukrainian “gold convoy” incident and National Cultural Fund grants, with raids on Fidesz-linked sites and questioning of former officials. While motions referencing Orbán have surfaced and lower-level figures face charges or detention, no arrest warrant or charges against him personally have advanced to that stage. With only months remaining until the December 31 deadline and ongoing procedural and evidentiary requirements, traders assign high probability to no arrest occurring.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ET
Volume
$38,502Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Viktor Orbán lost power in Hungary’s April 2026 parliamentary election to Péter Magyar’s Tisza party, ending 16 years in office.** The new government has prioritized anti-corruption efforts, including asset-recovery bodies, parliamentary inquiries, and probes into alleged Orbán-era misuse of public funds, EU grants, and state contracts. Specific cases under examination include the 2026 Ukrainian “gold convoy” incident and National Cultural Fund grants, with raids on Fidesz-linked sites and questioning of former officials. While motions referencing Orbán have surfaced and lower-level figures face charges or detention, no arrest warrant or charges against him personally have advanced to that stage. With only months remaining until the December 31 deadline and ongoing procedural and evidentiary requirements, traders assign high probability to no arrest occurring.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$38,502Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jul 7, 2026, 9:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Viktor Orbán lost power in Hungary’s April 2026 parliamentary election to Péter Magyar’s Tisza party, ending 16 years in office.** The new government has prioritized anti-corruption efforts, including asset-recovery bodies, parliamentary inquiries, and probes into alleged Orbán-era misuse of public funds, EU grants, and state contracts. Specific cases under examination include the 2026 Ukrainian “gold convoy” incident and National Cultural Fund grants, with raids on Fidesz-linked sites and questioning of former officials. While motions referencing Orbán have surfaced and lower-level figures face charges or detention, no arrest warrant or charges against him personally have advanced to that stage. With only months remaining until the December 31 deadline and ongoing procedural and evidentiary requirements, traders assign high probability to no arrest occurring.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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