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Politika·James Comey

Who will be arrested before 2027?

icon for Who will be arrested before 2027?
Politika·James Comey

Who will be arrested before 2027?

$415,042 Vol.

Polymarket

$415,042 Vol.

Polymarket

Anthony Fauci

$165,348 Vol.

10%

John Brennan

$22,487 Vol.

22%

José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero

$23,657 Vol.

13%

Adam Schiff

$16,985 Vol.

4%

Barack Obama

$29,427 Vol.

2%

James Comey

$10,821 Vol.

8%

Mahmoud Khalil

$1,375 Vol.

18%

James Clapper

$7,919 Vol.

16%

Letitia James

$3,047 Vol.

9%

Hillary Clinton

$26,360 Vol.

2%

Bill Clinton

$2,889 Vol.

1%

Loretta Lynch

$2,411 Vol.

8%

Susan Rice

$304 Vol.

8%

Candace Owens

$268 Vol.

7%

Gavin Newsom

$39,425 Vol.

3%

Benjamin Netanyahu

$1,949 Vol.

5%

John Kerry

$503 Vol.

1%

Pam Bondi

$2,189 Vol.

2%

Tom Homan

$41,416 Vol.

5%

Kash Patel

$607 Vol.

1%

Brandon Johnson

$3,290 Vol.

11%

Lisa Cook

$4,005 Vol.

3%

Lee Jun-seok

$794 Vol.

11%

Joe Biden

$7,565 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment in this multi-outcome market centers on high-profile figures facing congressional scrutiny, prior official actions, or enforcement proceedings, with outcomes priced according to the likelihood of qualifying physical custody or detention by December 31, 2026. Leading candidates draw attention from ongoing or potential investigations tied to intelligence matters, public health policy, immigration enforcement, and political opposition. Recent developments include Senate appearances involving former officials, active ICE operations, and probes into protest-related or corruption cases. Most listed individuals carry low implied probabilities due to procedural hurdles, statutes of limitations, and institutional protections, while higher-priced names reflect narrower windows of active legal exposure. Resolution hinges on verifiable arrest or detention criteria rather than indictments or charges alone, with few scheduled events certain to trigger outcomes before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$415,042
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment in this multi-outcome market centers on high-profile figures facing congressional scrutiny, prior official actions, or enforcement proceedings, with outcomes priced according to the likelihood of qualifying physical custody or detention by December 31, 2026. Leading candidates draw attention from ongoing or potential investigations tied to intelligence matters, public health policy, immigration enforcement, and political opposition. Recent developments include Senate appearances involving former officials, active ICE operations, and probes into protest-related or corruption cases. Most listed individuals carry low implied probabilities due to procedural hurdles, statutes of limitations, and institutional protections, while higher-priced names reflect narrower windows of active legal exposure. Resolution hinges on verifiable arrest or detention criteria rather than indictments or charges alone, with few scheduled events certain to trigger outcomes before year-end.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring

The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant)
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is arrested by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being briefly detained but not arrested (e.g. such as in the South Korean judicial system when an individual is awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant) * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$415,042
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 30, 2026, 5:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Kaugnay

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Will José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero be arrested by December 31, 2026?

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Who will be arrested before 2027?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 24 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "John Brennan" sa 22%, sinusundan ng "Mahmoud Khalil" sa 18%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 22¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 22% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Who will be arrested before 2027?" ay naka-generate ng $415K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Apr 30, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Who will be arrested before 2027?," i-browse ang 24 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Who will be arrested before 2027?" ay "John Brennan" sa 22%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 22% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Mahmoud Khalil" sa 18%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Who will be arrested before 2027?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.