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icon for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
Teknolohiya·SpaceX

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

icon for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14
Teknolohiya·SpaceX

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14

Jul 1, 2027

Jul 1, 2027

$704,524 Vol.

Oct 31, 2026
Polymarket

$704,524 Vol.

Polymarket

September 26

$10,718 Vol.

1%

September 30

$33,674 Vol.

73%

October 31

$2,349 Vol.

96%

Successful splash down?

$3,071 Vol.

71%

Super Heavy booster explodes?

$38,142 Vol.

89%

Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?

$19,728 Vol.

1%

Chopsticks catch Starship?

$463,356 Vol.

3%

If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Starship upper stage for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If SpaceX attempts to catch the Starship upper stage using the Orbital Launch Tower’s chopsticks instead of attempting an ocean splashdown, this market will resolve to “No.” This market pertains to the 14th Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the 14th Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the 14th launch, and this market will stay open until the 14th launch has occurred. If the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. A splashdown will be considered controlled if the Starship upper stage successfully re-enters Earth's atmosphere, remains intact during descent, and enters the water without breaking apart or exploding upon impact. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the booster for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the booster for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the 14th Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the 14th Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the 14th launch, and this market will stay open until the 14th launch has occurred. If the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Starship upper stage for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower’s chopsticks, this market will resolve to “No.” A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the 14th Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the 14th Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the 14th launch, and this market will stay open until the 14th launch has occurred. If the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by August 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.SpaceX has targeted Starship Flight 14 for launch as early as September 28 from Starbase, marking the vehicle's first attempt at orbital insertion with a 75-minute window opening at 7:15 a.m. CT. Hardware for Booster 21 and Ship 41 completed full-duration static fires in August, incorporating engine filtering upgrades and software tweaks to address ice-clogging and relight issues observed on Flight 13. The mission profile includes Raptor-powered orbital circularization, deployment of 26 operational Starlink V3 satellites adding significant constellation capacity, a single-engine deorbit burn, and controlled Pacific splashdown, while the booster targets a Gulf landing burn. FAA launch license approval remains the immediate gating item ahead of the window, with heat shield retention and tile design enhancements also under test based on prior flight data.

If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Volume
$704,524
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 1, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
Jul 31, 2026, 10:34 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 26, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Starship upper stage for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If SpaceX attempts to catch the Starship upper stage using the Orbital Launch Tower’s chopsticks instead of attempting an ocean splashdown, this market will resolve to “No.” This market pertains to the 14th Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the 14th Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the 14th launch, and this market will stay open until the 14th launch has occurred. If the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. A splashdown will be considered controlled if the Starship upper stage successfully re-enters Earth's atmosphere, remains intact during descent, and enters the water without breaking apart or exploding upon impact. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the booster for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the booster for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the 14th Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the 14th Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the 14th launch, and this market will stay open until the 14th launch has occurred. If the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Starship upper stage for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during its landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If SpaceX attempts an ocean splashdown of the Starship upper stage instead of attempting to catch it using the Orbital Launch Tower’s chopsticks, this market will resolve to “No.” A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the Starship upper stage without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process. This market pertains to the 14th Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the 14th Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the 14th launch, and this market will stay open until the 14th launch has occurred. If the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by August 22, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.SpaceX has targeted Starship Flight 14 for launch as early as September 28 from Starbase, marking the vehicle's first attempt at orbital insertion with a 75-minute window opening at 7:15 a.m. CT. Hardware for Booster 21 and Ship 41 completed full-duration static fires in August, incorporating engine filtering upgrades and software tweaks to address ice-clogging and relight issues observed on Flight 13. The mission profile includes Raptor-powered orbital circularization, deployment of 26 operational Starlink V3 satellites adding significant constellation capacity, a single-engine deorbit burn, and controlled Pacific splashdown, while the booster targets a Gulf landing burn. FAA launch license approval remains the immediate gating item ahead of the window, with heat shield retention and tile design enhancements also under test based on prior flight data.

If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
Volume
$704,524
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jul 1, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
Jul 31, 2026, 10:34 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 11 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "October 31" sa 96%, sinusundan ng "Super Heavy booster explodes?" sa 89%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 96¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 96% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14" ay naka-generate ng $704.5K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Jul 31, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14," i-browse ang 11 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14" ay "October 31" sa 96%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 96% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Super Heavy booster explodes?" sa 89%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.