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icon for September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?

September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?

icon for September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?

September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?

2nd hottest 97.0%

4th or lower 2.3%

1st hottest 1.6%

3rd hottest <1%

Polymarket
BAGO

2nd hottest 97.0%

4th or lower 2.3%

1st hottest 1.6%

3rd hottest <1%

Polymarket
BAGO

1st hottest

$1,362 Vol.

2%

2nd hottest

$1,072 Vol.

97%

3rd hottest

$893 Vol.

1%

4th or lower

$958 Vol.

2%

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record. Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent observational data from Copernicus and ECMWF indicate September 2026 is tracking toward roughly 16.25°C globally, positioning it as the second-warmest September in the ERA5 record behind September 2023 amid a strengthening El Niño that has already driven August 2026 to the joint-hottest month ever at 16.96°C. Long-term anthropogenic warming plus Pacific heat release sustain elevated anomalies near +0.81°C relative to 1991–2020, yet seasonal cooling and model consensus keep the month short of overtaking the prior peak while comfortably ahead of other recent Septembers. Trader consensus at 97% implied probability for second place reflects these verified trends and narrow uncertainty ranges in ensemble forecasts; only substantial late-month warming revisions or data adjustments could realistically elevate it to first, while cooler-than-expected conditions would be required to drop it to third or lower.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.

Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record. Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$4,286
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 1, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47de9d...
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record. Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent observational data from Copernicus and ECMWF indicate September 2026 is tracking toward roughly 16.25°C globally, positioning it as the second-warmest September in the ERA5 record behind September 2023 amid a strengthening El Niño that has already driven August 2026 to the joint-hottest month ever at 16.96°C. Long-term anthropogenic warming plus Pacific heat release sustain elevated anomalies near +0.81°C relative to 1991–2020, yet seasonal cooling and model consensus keep the month short of overtaking the prior peak while comfortably ahead of other recent Septembers. Trader consensus at 97% implied probability for second place reflects these verified trends and narrow uncertainty ranges in ensemble forecasts; only substantial late-month warming revisions or data adjustments could realistically elevate it to first, while cooler-than-expected conditions would be required to drop it to third or lower.

This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.

Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.

If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record. Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$4,286
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Oct 1, 2026
Binuksan ang Market
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET

Resolver

0x69c47de9d...

Kaugnay

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Will global temperature increase by between 1.35ºC and 1.39ºC in September 2026?

83%
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Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?

76%
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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 4 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "2nd hottest" sa 99%, sinusundan ng "4th or lower" sa 4%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 99¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 99% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Ang "September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?" ay isang bagong likhang market sa Polymarket, inilunsad noong Aug 28, 2026. Bilang isang maagang market, ito ang iyong pagkakataon na maging kabilang sa mga unang trader na magtakda ng odds at mag-establish ng mga paunang price signal ng market. Maaari mo ring i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para subaybayan ang volume at trading activity habang lumalaki ang market sa paglipas ng panahon.

Para mag-trade sa "September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?," i-browse ang 4 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?" ay "2nd hottest" sa 99%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 99% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "4th or lower" sa 4%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "September 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.