**Traders assign an 89% probability against Putin visiting the United States by December 31, 2026, primarily because Russia has not accepted the U.S. invitation to the G20 summit in Miami and continues to describe any decision as premature.** Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov stated in September that the matter would be handled through diplomatic channels without a timeline, while recent Trump-Putin phone discussions focused on energy supplies and Ukraine talks without confirming travel plans. The Kremlin has signaled openness to meetings on neutral ground, such as the APEC summit in China, and Putin’s last visit to the continental U.S. occurred in 2015. Ongoing diplomatic friction tied to the Ukraine conflict, including stalled negotiations and sanctions dynamics, further reduces the likelihood of a high-profile U.S. trip materializing before year-end despite improving bilateral contacts.