Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen holds a commanding lead in the NY-04 House race, reflected in trader consensus around 90% implied probability. The South Shore Nassau County district features a Democratic enrollment edge and has leaned Democratic in recent ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Gillen flipped the seat in 2024 and faces limited primary opposition, while Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll, the Hempstead receiver of taxes, consolidated her party’s support after a June primary but trails in a seat that has alternated parties in successive cycles. Key influences include local concerns over affordability and taxes, with the general election set for November 3. A national Republican surge, stronger turnout on the right, or effective attacks on Gillen’s record could narrow the gap, though structural factors currently favor the incumbent.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateBAGO
BAGO
Nov 3, 2026
Laura Gillen (D)
91%
Jeanine Driscoll (R)
10%
BAGO
BAGO
Nov 3, 2026
Laura Gillen (D)
$3,690 Vol.
91%
Jeanine Driscoll (R)
$2,153 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen holds a commanding lead in the NY-04 House race, reflected in trader consensus around 90% implied probability. The South Shore Nassau County district features a Democratic enrollment edge and has leaned Democratic in recent ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Gillen flipped the seat in 2024 and faces limited primary opposition, while Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll, the Hempstead receiver of taxes, consolidated her party’s support after a June primary but trails in a seat that has alternated parties in successive cycles. Key influences include local concerns over affordability and taxes, with the general election set for November 3. A national Republican surge, stronger turnout on the right, or effective attacks on Gillen’s record could narrow the gap, though structural factors currently favor the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$5,843Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 5, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen holds a commanding lead in the NY-04 House race, reflected in trader consensus around 90% implied probability. The South Shore Nassau County district features a Democratic enrollment edge and has leaned Democratic in recent ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Gillen flipped the seat in 2024 and faces limited primary opposition, while Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll, the Hempstead receiver of taxes, consolidated her party’s support after a June primary but trails in a seat that has alternated parties in successive cycles. Key influences include local concerns over affordability and taxes, with the general election set for November 3. A national Republican surge, stronger turnout on the right, or effective attacks on Gillen’s record could narrow the gap, though structural factors currently favor the incumbent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$5,843Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 5, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Laura Gillen holds a commanding lead in the NY-04 House race, reflected in trader consensus around 90% implied probability. The South Shore Nassau County district features a Democratic enrollment edge and has leaned Democratic in recent ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. Gillen flipped the seat in 2024 and faces limited primary opposition, while Republican nominee Jeanine Driscoll, the Hempstead receiver of taxes, consolidated her party’s support after a June primary but trails in a seat that has alternated parties in successive cycles. Key influences include local concerns over affordability and taxes, with the general election set for November 3. A national Republican surge, stronger turnout on the right, or effective attacks on Gillen’s record could narrow the gap, though structural factors currently favor the incumbent.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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