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Politika·Pandaigdigang Halalan

Next Prime Minister of Italy?

icon for Next Prime Minister of Italy?
Politika·Pandaigdigang Halalan

Next Prime Minister of Italy?

Giorgia Meloni 55%

Elly Schlein 15%

Giuseppe Conte 13%

Roberto Vannacci 9.8%

Polymarket

$85,328 Vol.

Giorgia Meloni 55%

Elly Schlein 15%

Giuseppe Conte 13%

Roberto Vannacci 9.8%

Polymarket

$85,328 Vol.

Giorgia Meloni

$10,547 Vol.

55%

Elly Schlein

$6,176 Vol.

15%

Giuseppe Conte

$5,677 Vol.

13%

Antonio Tajani

$2,277 Vol.

<1%

Matteo Salvini

$3,400 Vol.

<1%

Guido Crosetto

$1,534 Vol.

<1%

Mario Draghi

$3,198 Vol.

2%

Silvia Salis

$8,718 Vol.

8%

Roberto Vannacci

$38,065 Vol.

10%

Matteo Renzi

$1,647 Vol.

<1%

Angelo Bonelli

$1,802 Vol.

<1%

Carlo Calenda

$2,287 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Giorgia Meloni leads trader pricing for Italy’s next prime minister due to her incumbency and the center-right coalition’s structural advantages ahead of elections due by late 2027, despite recent erosion in support. Her government reached a postwar longevity record in early September, and she has publicly committed to completing the term while advancing an electoral reform that introduces a majority bonus to favor larger alliances. Polls show Brothers of Italy holding around 26-27 percent, but a new far-right party led by Roberto Vannacci has surged to roughly 7-8 percent, drawing votes from the coalition and prompting internal strains. On the center-left, fragmented support between Elly Schlein’s Democratic Party and Giuseppe Conte’s Five Star Movement keeps their individual probabilities modest, while low odds for figures such as Mario Draghi reflect limited near-term scenarios for technocratic intervention.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$85,328
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2028
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Giorgia Meloni leads trader pricing for Italy’s next prime minister due to her incumbency and the center-right coalition’s structural advantages ahead of elections due by late 2027, despite recent erosion in support. Her government reached a postwar longevity record in early September, and she has publicly committed to completing the term while advancing an electoral reform that introduces a majority bonus to favor larger alliances. Polls show Brothers of Italy holding around 26-27 percent, but a new far-right party led by Roberto Vannacci has surged to roughly 7-8 percent, drawing votes from the coalition and prompting internal strains. On the center-left, fragmented support between Elly Schlein’s Democratic Party and Giuseppe Conte’s Five Star Movement keeps their individual probabilities modest, while low odds for figures such as Mario Draghi reflect limited near-term scenarios for technocratic intervention.

This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET.

To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.

If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.This market will resolve to the next individual who officially assumes the office of Prime Minister of Italy by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET. To count for resolution, the individual must be officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Italy. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market. If no such Prime Minister takes office by December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Italy; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$85,328
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2028
Binuksan ang Market
Apr 21, 2026, 3:35 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...

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Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Next Prime Minister of Italy?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 12 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "Giorgia Meloni" sa 55%, sinusundan ng "Elly Schlein" sa 14%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 55¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 55% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Next Prime Minister of Italy?" ay naka-generate ng $85.3K sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Apr 21, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Next Prime Minister of Italy?," i-browse ang 12 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Next Prime Minister of Italy?" ay "Giorgia Meloni" sa 55%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 55% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "Elly Schlein" sa 14%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Next Prime Minister of Italy?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.