**Netanyahu’s explicit statements that he intends to lead Likud through the October 27 election and, if necessary, serve as opposition leader afterward form the core driver of the 97.5% “No” consensus.** Recent reporting shows him actively campaigning, releasing election videos, addressing security threats, and rejecting any suggestion of retirement despite polls indicating a tight or hung parliament and ongoing scrutiny over October 7 accountability. His long record of political resilience, unified party support, and absence of reported health or legal developments that would compel withdrawal reinforce trader expectations. The short remaining timeline further limits realistic paths to an exit. Late-breaking events such as a sudden medical issue or unprecedented scandal could theoretically alter the outcome, but none have materialized in the current environment.