No major meteor strike of 10 kilotons or greater remains unlikely through the end of 2026, with trader consensus at 90% for "No" reflecting sustained absence of credible impactors on Sentry and ESA risk lists. Continuous NASA and ESA orbital monitoring, including recent detections like the sub-2-meter 2026 RW1 that burned up harmlessly over the Indian Ocean, shows only small objects on safe trajectories. Upcoming LSST operations will further refine near-Earth asteroid catalogs, but no objects large enough for a significant airburst are projected to intersect Earth in the remaining months. Historical rates of such events are low, and refined trajectories have consistently removed earlier hypothetical risks.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateMajor meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
10% tsansa
$206,915 Vol.
$206,915 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
10% tsansa
$206,915 Vol.
$206,915 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No major meteor strike of 10 kilotons or greater remains unlikely through the end of 2026, with trader consensus at 90% for "No" reflecting sustained absence of credible impactors on Sentry and ESA risk lists. Continuous NASA and ESA orbital monitoring, including recent detections like the sub-2-meter 2026 RW1 that burned up harmlessly over the Indian Ocean, shows only small objects on safe trajectories. Upcoming LSST operations will further refine near-Earth asteroid catalogs, but no objects large enough for a significant airburst are projected to intersect Earth in the remaining months. Historical rates of such events are low, and refined trajectories have consistently removed earlier hypothetical risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Binuksan ang Market: Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
Volume
$206,915Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Mar 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No major meteor strike of 10 kilotons or greater remains unlikely through the end of 2026, with trader consensus at 90% for "No" reflecting sustained absence of credible impactors on Sentry and ESA risk lists. Continuous NASA and ESA orbital monitoring, including recent detections like the sub-2-meter 2026 RW1 that burned up harmlessly over the Indian Ocean, shows only small objects on safe trajectories. Upcoming LSST operations will further refine near-Earth asteroid catalogs, but no objects large enough for a significant airburst are projected to intersect Earth in the remaining months. Historical rates of such events are low, and refined trajectories have consistently removed earlier hypothetical risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$206,915Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Mar 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No major meteor strike of 10 kilotons or greater remains unlikely through the end of 2026, with trader consensus at 90% for "No" reflecting sustained absence of credible impactors on Sentry and ESA risk lists. Continuous NASA and ESA orbital monitoring, including recent detections like the sub-2-meter 2026 RW1 that burned up harmlessly over the Indian Ocean, shows only small objects on safe trajectories. Upcoming LSST operations will further refine near-Earth asteroid catalogs, but no objects large enough for a significant airburst are projected to intersect Earth in the remaining months. Historical rates of such events are low, and refined trajectories have consistently removed earlier hypothetical risks.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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