Comprehensive near-Earth object surveys by NASA’s CNEOS and international partners have identified no asteroids or comets on trajectories capable of a 100-kiloton atmospheric impact in 2026. Historical frequency data indicate such bolides occur far less often than once per decade on average, aligning with the market’s 96.4% implied probability for “No.” Ongoing radar and optical monitoring through year-end, plus recent small-object detections like 2026 RW1 that released negligible energy, further support trader consensus. An undetected fragment or late orbital revision remains a low-probability wildcard, though current catalogs make it unlikely to shift resolution criteria.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update100kt meteor strike in 2026?
100kt meteor strike in 2026?
4% tsansa
BAGO
BAGO
Dec 31, 2026
4% tsansa
BAGO
BAGO
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Comprehensive near-Earth object surveys by NASA’s CNEOS and international partners have identified no asteroids or comets on trajectories capable of a 100-kiloton atmospheric impact in 2026. Historical frequency data indicate such bolides occur far less often than once per decade on average, aligning with the market’s 96.4% implied probability for “No.” Ongoing radar and optical monitoring through year-end, plus recent small-object detections like 2026 RW1 that released negligible energy, further support trader consensus. An undetected fragment or late orbital revision remains a low-probability wildcard, though current catalogs make it unlikely to shift resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Volume
$8,955Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Comprehensive near-Earth object surveys by NASA’s CNEOS and international partners have identified no asteroids or comets on trajectories capable of a 100-kiloton atmospheric impact in 2026. Historical frequency data indicate such bolides occur far less often than once per decade on average, aligning with the market’s 96.4% implied probability for “No.” Ongoing radar and optical monitoring through year-end, plus recent small-object detections like 2026 RW1 that released negligible energy, further support trader consensus. An undetected fragment or late orbital revision remains a low-probability wildcard, though current catalogs make it unlikely to shift resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$8,955Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Comprehensive near-Earth object surveys by NASA’s CNEOS and international partners have identified no asteroids or comets on trajectories capable of a 100-kiloton atmospheric impact in 2026. Historical frequency data indicate such bolides occur far less often than once per decade on average, aligning with the market’s 96.4% implied probability for “No.” Ongoing radar and optical monitoring through year-end, plus recent small-object detections like 2026 RW1 that released negligible energy, further support trader consensus. An undetected fragment or late orbital revision remains a low-probability wildcard, though current catalogs make it unlikely to shift resolution criteria.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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