Traders assign a 78% probability to Maduro not being convicted on all counts in the U.S. drug-trafficking indictment by the end of 2027, driven primarily by pending pretrial motions to dismiss on sovereign immunity grounds. Maduro and his wife, facing four felony counts including narcoterrorism and cocaine importation conspiracies after their January 2026 U.S. military capture, pleaded not guilty and have until the June 2027 trial date to litigate dismissal before Judge Alvin Hellerstein, with a November 2026 hearing scheduled on the immunity challenge. Prosecutors must respond by early October 2026, and historical U.S. precedents on head-of-state immunity and extraterritorial captures suggest significant barriers to full adjudication. The extended timeline, potential for partial outcomes or procedural resolutions, and reliance on informant testimony further support the current market consensus reflected in the pricing.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update22% tsansa
$133,111 Vol.
$133,111 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
22% tsansa
$133,111 Vol.
$133,111 Vol.
Dec 30, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 78% probability to Maduro not being convicted on all counts in the U.S. drug-trafficking indictment by the end of 2027, driven primarily by pending pretrial motions to dismiss on sovereign immunity grounds. Maduro and his wife, facing four felony counts including narcoterrorism and cocaine importation conspiracies after their January 2026 U.S. military capture, pleaded not guilty and have until the June 2027 trial date to litigate dismissal before Judge Alvin Hellerstein, with a November 2026 hearing scheduled on the immunity challenge. Prosecutors must respond by early October 2026, and historical U.S. precedents on head-of-state immunity and extraterritorial captures suggest significant barriers to full adjudication. The extended timeline, potential for partial outcomes or procedural resolutions, and reliance on informant testimony further support the current market consensus reflected in the pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ET
Volume
$133,111Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 78% probability to Maduro not being convicted on all counts in the U.S. drug-trafficking indictment by the end of 2027, driven primarily by pending pretrial motions to dismiss on sovereign immunity grounds. Maduro and his wife, facing four felony counts including narcoterrorism and cocaine importation conspiracies after their January 2026 U.S. military capture, pleaded not guilty and have until the June 2027 trial date to litigate dismissal before Judge Alvin Hellerstein, with a November 2026 hearing scheduled on the immunity challenge. Prosecutors must respond by early October 2026, and historical U.S. precedents on head-of-state immunity and extraterritorial captures suggest significant barriers to full adjudication. The extended timeline, potential for partial outcomes or procedural resolutions, and reliance on informant testimony further support the current market consensus reflected in the pricing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Nicolás Maduro is found guilty of all counts in the indictment 'UNITED STATES OF AMERICA V. NICOLAS MADURO MOROS[...]' (S4 11 Cr. 205 (AKH)) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve based on the initial verdict rendered by the court regarding Maduro’s indictment as of market creation (https://www.justice.gov/opa/media/1422326/dl).
If Nicolás Maduro is not found guilty of all counts in the referenced indictment by the resolution time, this market will resolve to “No.” This includes any outcome in which no trial occurs, or that does not result in a guilty verdict or a court-accepted guilty plea on all counts, such as acquittal on any count, partial conviction, mistrial, hung jury, or dismissal of any count.
The market will resolve according to the initial verdict rendered in this case. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. court system; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$133,111Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Dec 31, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jan 4, 2026, 12:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 78% probability to Maduro not being convicted on all counts in the U.S. drug-trafficking indictment by the end of 2027, driven primarily by pending pretrial motions to dismiss on sovereign immunity grounds. Maduro and his wife, facing four felony counts including narcoterrorism and cocaine importation conspiracies after their January 2026 U.S. military capture, pleaded not guilty and have until the June 2027 trial date to litigate dismissal before Judge Alvin Hellerstein, with a November 2026 hearing scheduled on the immunity challenge. Prosecutors must respond by early October 2026, and historical U.S. precedents on head-of-state immunity and extraterritorial captures suggest significant barriers to full adjudication. The extended timeline, potential for partial outcomes or procedural resolutions, and reliance on informant testimony further support the current market consensus reflected in the pricing.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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