Traders see the tightest implied probabilities clustered around 10–12°C for Moscow’s lowest temperature on September 11 because short-range ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS show only modest spread in overnight radiative cooling under a building high-pressure ridge. Clear skies and light winds favor efficient heat loss from the surface, while variable low-level moisture and slight differences in the timing of any weak frontal passage create the 1–2°C uncertainty band reflected in market prices. Historical September minima in Moscow average near 8–10°C, but current model consensus places the most likely outcome slightly above that baseline due to warmer-than-normal 850 hPa temperatures advected from the southwest. Updated model runs and observational data from the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring will refine the forecast overnight, potentially shifting the final distribution before resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateLowest temperature in Moscow on September 11?
Lowest temperature in Moscow on September 11?
8°C 40%
9°C 40%
13°C 40%
14°C 40%
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 11, 2026
6°C or below
1%
7°C
16%
8°C
40%
9°C
40%
10°C
28%
11°C
27%
12°C
25%
13°C
40%
14°C
40%
15°C
40%
16°C or higher
1%
8°C 40%
9°C 40%
13°C 40%
14°C 40%
BAGO
BAGO
Sep 11, 2026
6°C or below
$100 Vol.
1%
7°C
$0 Vol.
16%
8°C
$0 Vol.
40%
9°C
$0 Vol.
40%
10°C
$0 Vol.
28%
11°C
$0 Vol.
27%
12°C
$0 Vol.
25%
13°C
$0 Vol.
40%
14°C
$0 Vol.
40%
15°C
$0 Vol.
40%
16°C or higher
$160 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the tightest implied probabilities clustered around 10–12°C for Moscow’s lowest temperature on September 11 because short-range ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS show only modest spread in overnight radiative cooling under a building high-pressure ridge. Clear skies and light winds favor efficient heat loss from the surface, while variable low-level moisture and slight differences in the timing of any weak frontal passage create the 1–2°C uncertainty band reflected in market prices. Historical September minima in Moscow average near 8–10°C, but current model consensus places the most likely outcome slightly above that baseline due to warmer-than-normal 850 hPa temperatures advected from the southwest. Updated model runs and observational data from the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring will refine the forecast overnight, potentially shifting the final distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$260Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 11, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders see the tightest implied probabilities clustered around 10–12°C for Moscow’s lowest temperature on September 11 because short-range ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS show only modest spread in overnight radiative cooling under a building high-pressure ridge. Clear skies and light winds favor efficient heat loss from the surface, while variable low-level moisture and slight differences in the timing of any weak frontal passage create the 1–2°C uncertainty band reflected in market prices. Historical September minima in Moscow average near 8–10°C, but current model consensus places the most likely outcome slightly above that baseline due to warmer-than-normal 850 hPa temperatures advected from the southwest. Updated model runs and observational data from the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring will refine the forecast overnight, potentially shifting the final distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 11 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$260Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Sep 11, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 9, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders see the tightest implied probabilities clustered around 10–12°C for Moscow’s lowest temperature on September 11 because short-range ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and GFS show only modest spread in overnight radiative cooling under a building high-pressure ridge. Clear skies and light winds favor efficient heat loss from the surface, while variable low-level moisture and slight differences in the timing of any weak frontal passage create the 1–2°C uncertainty band reflected in market prices. Historical September minima in Moscow average near 8–10°C, but current model consensus places the most likely outcome slightly above that baseline due to warmer-than-normal 850 hPa temperatures advected from the southwest. Updated model runs and observational data from the Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring will refine the forecast overnight, potentially shifting the final distribution before resolution.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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