Israel and Lebanon signed a U.S.-brokered framework agreement in June 2026 that links Israeli redeployment from southern pilot zones to Lebanese Armed Forces deployment and verified Hezbollah disarmament, but the accord explicitly stops short of diplomatic normalization or a full peace treaty. Hezbollah rejected the deal as null and void and has refused to disarm, while Israeli forces maintain a security buffer zone amid reported violations and limited strikes. Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has described any security arrangement as a possible prelude rather than an immediate path to normalized relations, and subsequent talks have faced delays with the next round shifted to October. These persistent obstacles, including Hezbollah’s entrenched position and the conditional, incremental nature of implementation, underpin trader expectations that full normalization will not occur before the end of 2026.