Ongoing hostilities with Hezbollah, including Israel's September 2026 strikes on underground infrastructure and maintenance of a southern buffer zone, remain the dominant factor behind the 95.5% trader consensus against normalization before 2027. The June 2026 U.S.-brokered framework agreement established conditional, phased steps linking any Israeli redeployment to verified Lebanese army control and Hezbollah disarmament, yet the group rejected the deal outright and subsequent negotiation rounds produced no territorial breakthroughs. Scheduled October talks in Rome and ambassador-level meetings offer limited scope for rapid progress toward full diplomatic relations or a peace treaty within the narrow remaining window. Late developments such as verified disarmament milestones, Lebanese political shifts enabling implementation, or unexpected diplomatic concessions could still alter the trajectory, though entrenched positions and verification requirements make these outcomes improbable in the timeframe.