Recent meteorological data and model consensus from monitoring agencies support the market's near-certain implied probability for a 30°C daily maximum in Busan on September 24, driven by observed afternoon temperatures reaching that threshold amid partly cloudy conditions and light southerly winds. This aligns with typical late-September patterns in the region, where warm, humid air masses from the East Sea sustain highs several degrees above the monthly average of roughly 25°C. Key resolution factors include official station readings from the Korea Meteorological Administration, which traders monitor closely for precise peak values. Minor forecast adjustments or localized cooling from increased cloud cover could theoretically shift outcomes, though current conditions make such deviations unlikely before final data release.