**Oliver Gilbert's narrow Democratic primary victory over Shevrin Jones on August 18 has positioned the Miami-Dade commissioner as the clear favorite in Florida's 24th District general election.** The open seat, vacated by retiring Rep. Frederica Wilson, remains one of the state's most Democratic strongholds after mid-decade redistricting preserved its majority-Black and Hispanic voting-age population in northern Miami-Dade and southern Broward counties. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the market's heavy weighting toward large Democratic margins and negligible probability assigned to a Republican win. Gilbert's local government record and Wilson's endorsement provide organizational advantages against Republican nominee Te Brown, while low visibility and limited resources for the GOP candidate reinforce the lopsided outlook. Factors that could shift margins include turnout disparities in key precincts, late spending surges, or national political tailwinds, though the district's partisan baseline limits upside for the challenger.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateDemocrat 40-45% 27%
Democrat 50-55% 18%
Democrat 45-50% 14.4%
Democrat 35-40% 13%
BAGO
BAGO
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 55%+
12%
Democrat 50-55%
18%
Democrat 45-50%
14%
Democrat 40-45%
27%
Democrat 35-40%
13%
Democrat 30-35%
10%
Democrat 25-30%
6%
Democrat 15-25%
4%
Democrat 0-15%
4%
Republican Wins
<1%
Democrat 40-45% 27%
Democrat 50-55% 18%
Democrat 45-50% 14.4%
Democrat 35-40% 13%
BAGO
BAGO
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 55%+
$261 Vol.
12%
Democrat 50-55%
$865 Vol.
18%
Democrat 45-50%
$259 Vol.
14%
Democrat 40-45%
$880 Vol.
27%
Democrat 35-40%
$976 Vol.
13%
Democrat 30-35%
$219 Vol.
10%
Democrat 25-30%
$209 Vol.
6%
Democrat 15-25%
$1,006 Vol.
4%
Democrat 0-15%
$151 Vol.
4%
Republican Wins
$247 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 FL-24 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-24 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Oliver Gilbert's narrow Democratic primary victory over Shevrin Jones on August 18 has positioned the Miami-Dade commissioner as the clear favorite in Florida's 24th District general election.** The open seat, vacated by retiring Rep. Frederica Wilson, remains one of the state's most Democratic strongholds after mid-decade redistricting preserved its majority-Black and Hispanic voting-age population in northern Miami-Dade and southern Broward counties. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the market's heavy weighting toward large Democratic margins and negligible probability assigned to a Republican win. Gilbert's local government record and Wilson's endorsement provide organizational advantages against Republican nominee Te Brown, while low visibility and limited resources for the GOP candidate reinforce the lopsided outlook. Factors that could shift margins include turnout disparities in key precincts, late spending surges, or national political tailwinds, though the district's partisan baseline limits upside for the challenger.
The 2026 FL-24 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-24 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-24 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Aug 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ET
Volume
$5,073Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 FL-24 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-24 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Oliver Gilbert's narrow Democratic primary victory over Shevrin Jones on August 18 has positioned the Miami-Dade commissioner as the clear favorite in Florida's 24th District general election.** The open seat, vacated by retiring Rep. Frederica Wilson, remains one of the state's most Democratic strongholds after mid-decade redistricting preserved its majority-Black and Hispanic voting-age population in northern Miami-Dade and southern Broward counties. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the market's heavy weighting toward large Democratic margins and negligible probability assigned to a Republican win. Gilbert's local government record and Wilson's endorsement provide organizational advantages against Republican nominee Te Brown, while low visibility and limited resources for the GOP candidate reinforce the lopsided outlook. Factors that could shift margins include turnout disparities in key precincts, late spending surges, or national political tailwinds, though the district's partisan baseline limits upside for the challenger.
The 2026 FL-24 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-24 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For purposes of this market, candidates nominated by the Democratic & Republican Parties will represent the options for "Democrat" and "Republican," respectively. Independent candidates will not represent options for either party. The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 FL-24 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$5,073Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Aug 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Oliver Gilbert's narrow Democratic primary victory over Shevrin Jones on August 18 has positioned the Miami-Dade commissioner as the clear favorite in Florida's 24th District general election.** The open seat, vacated by retiring Rep. Frederica Wilson, remains one of the state's most Democratic strongholds after mid-decade redistricting preserved its majority-Black and Hispanic voting-age population in northern Miami-Dade and southern Broward counties. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with the market's heavy weighting toward large Democratic margins and negligible probability assigned to a Republican win. Gilbert's local government record and Wilson's endorsement provide organizational advantages against Republican nominee Te Brown, while low visibility and limited resources for the GOP candidate reinforce the lopsided outlook. Factors that could shift margins include turnout disparities in key precincts, late spending surges, or national political tailwinds, though the district's partisan baseline limits upside for the challenger.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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