**Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros holds a structural edge in California's 31st district, a San Gabriel Valley seat with a D+10 Cook PVI, roughly 44% Democratic registration, and a majority-Hispanic electorate.** The June 2026 top-two primary confirmed Cisneros and Republican Eric Ching as the November 3 general election matchup, with ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classifying the race as Solid or Safe Democratic. Statewide polling shows Democratic House candidates leading by roughly 26 points, consistent with the district’s underlying lean and the absence of major recent developments or scandals that would shift voter sentiment. Trader prices near 50% across candidate and margin buckets reflect uncertainty over turnout among no-party-preference voters and the precise size of the Democratic victory rather than any realistic chance of a Republican win. Factors that could widen the margin include stronger Democratic mobilization on affordability or immigration issues, while lower turnout or national headwinds could compress it within the observed range.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-updateDemocrat 0-5% 35%
Republican Wins 34%
Democrat 10-15% 34%
Democrat 20-25% 33%
BAGO
BAGO
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 30%+
32%
Democrat 25-30%
31%
Democrat 20-25%
33%
Democrat 15-20%
31%
Democrat 10-15%
34%
Democrat 5-10%
30%
Democrat 0-5%
35%
Republican Wins
34%
Democrat 0-5% 35%
Republican Wins 34%
Democrat 10-15% 34%
Democrat 20-25% 33%
BAGO
BAGO
Nov 3, 2026
Democrat 30%+
$0 Vol.
32%
Democrat 25-30%
$0 Vol.
31%
Democrat 20-25%
$0 Vol.
33%
Democrat 15-20%
$0 Vol.
31%
Democrat 10-15%
$0 Vol.
34%
Democrat 5-10%
$0 Vol.
30%
Democrat 0-5%
$0 Vol.
35%
Republican Wins
$0 Vol.
34%
The 2026 CA-31 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-31 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros holds a structural edge in California's 31st district, a San Gabriel Valley seat with a D+10 Cook PVI, roughly 44% Democratic registration, and a majority-Hispanic electorate.** The June 2026 top-two primary confirmed Cisneros and Republican Eric Ching as the November 3 general election matchup, with ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classifying the race as Solid or Safe Democratic. Statewide polling shows Democratic House candidates leading by roughly 26 points, consistent with the district’s underlying lean and the absence of major recent developments or scandals that would shift voter sentiment. Trader prices near 50% across candidate and margin buckets reflect uncertainty over turnout among no-party-preference voters and the precise size of the Democratic victory rather than any realistic chance of a Republican win. Factors that could widen the margin include stronger Democratic mobilization on affordability or immigration issues, while lower turnout or national headwinds could compress it within the observed range.
The 2026 CA-31 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-31 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-31 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Binuksan ang Market: Sep 2, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
Volume
$0Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 2, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 CA-31 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-31 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros holds a structural edge in California's 31st district, a San Gabriel Valley seat with a D+10 Cook PVI, roughly 44% Democratic registration, and a majority-Hispanic electorate.** The June 2026 top-two primary confirmed Cisneros and Republican Eric Ching as the November 3 general election matchup, with ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classifying the race as Solid or Safe Democratic. Statewide polling shows Democratic House candidates leading by roughly 26 points, consistent with the district’s underlying lean and the absence of major recent developments or scandals that would shift voter sentiment. Trader prices near 50% across candidate and margin buckets reflect uncertainty over turnout among no-party-preference voters and the precise size of the Democratic victory rather than any realistic chance of a Republican win. Factors that could widen the margin include stronger Democratic mobilization on affordability or immigration issues, while lower turnout or national headwinds could compress it within the observed range.
The 2026 CA-31 House election is currently expected to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-31 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election.
The "margin of victory" is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
The options for "Democrat" and "Republican" refer to any representative of the Democratic Party and Republican Party, respectively, appearing on the general election ballot.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose ballot-listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to "Other." If the listed candidate is represented in this market group as "Republican" or "Democrat" their ballot-listed last name will still be used for tiebreaking.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 CA-31 House election as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$0Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Nov 3, 2026Binuksan ang Market
Sep 2, 2026, 3:39 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Incumbent Democrat Gil Cisneros holds a structural edge in California's 31st district, a San Gabriel Valley seat with a D+10 Cook PVI, roughly 44% Democratic registration, and a majority-Hispanic electorate.** The June 2026 top-two primary confirmed Cisneros and Republican Eric Ching as the November 3 general election matchup, with ratings from Cook, Inside Elections, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classifying the race as Solid or Safe Democratic. Statewide polling shows Democratic House candidates leading by roughly 26 points, consistent with the district’s underlying lean and the absence of major recent developments or scandals that would shift voter sentiment. Trader prices near 50% across candidate and margin buckets reflect uncertainty over turnout among no-party-preference voters and the precise size of the Democratic victory rather than any realistic chance of a Republican win. Factors that could widen the margin include stronger Democratic mobilization on affordability or immigration issues, while lower turnout or national headwinds could compress it within the observed range.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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