Skip to main content

Para mag-trade sa US, pumunta sa polymarket.us

icon for Ang Bab el - Mandeb Strait ay epektibong isinara ng...?
Politika·Houthi

Ang Bab el - Mandeb Strait ay epektibong isinara ng...?

icon for Ang Bab el - Mandeb Strait ay epektibong isinara ng...?
Politika·Houthi

Ang Bab el - Mandeb Strait ay epektibong isinara ng...?

$14,925,040 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$14,925,040 Vol.

Polymarket

September 15

$831,136 Vol.

<1%

September 30

$3,609,688 Vol.

2%

October 31

$578,274 Vol.

12%

December 31

$1,013,985 Vol.

19%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c , including both the chart and downloadable files.Houthi forces have consolidated control over Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline and key islands including Perim (Mayyun) and the Hanish group in early September 2026, positioning them to monitor and potentially interdict traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Clashes with Yemeni government forces continue near the strait, with recent reports of casualties on both sides. Commercial transits have fallen sharply—roughly 50-60% below pre-crisis levels in some tracking data—yet vessels continue to pass without a formal closure declaration by any authority. Shipping lines have adjusted routes and insurance costs have risen, while UN monitoring notes heightened volatility without a complete halt in flows. Broader regional dynamics, including tensions tied to the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi oil exports, add pressure, with upcoming diplomatic or military developments likely to influence whether traffic drops further or stabilizes in the coming weeks.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.

If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$14,925,040
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
Jul 8, 2026, 8:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c , including both the chart and downloadable files.Houthi forces have consolidated control over Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline and key islands including Perim (Mayyun) and the Hanish group in early September 2026, positioning them to monitor and potentially interdict traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Clashes with Yemeni government forces continue near the strait, with recent reports of casualties on both sides. Commercial transits have fallen sharply—roughly 50-60% below pre-crisis levels in some tracking data—yet vessels continue to pass without a formal closure declaration by any authority. Shipping lines have adjusted routes and insurance costs have risen, while UN monitoring notes heightened volatility without a complete halt in flows. Broader regional dynamics, including tensions tied to the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi oil exports, add pressure, with upcoming diplomatic or military developments likely to influence whether traffic drops further or stabilizes in the coming weeks.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.

If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.

Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volume
$14,925,040
Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Jan 1, 2027
Binuksan ang Market
Jul 8, 2026, 8:27 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

Kaugnay

icon for 0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by December 31?

0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by December 31?

16%
icon for Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?

Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on September 30?

67%
icon for Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?

Will fewer than 170 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between September 14-September 20?

69%

Mag-ingat sa mga external link.

Mga Madalas na Tanong

Ang "Ang Bab el - Mandeb Strait ay epektibong isinara ng...?" ay isang prediction market sa Polymarket na may 12 posibleng outcomes kung saan bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares batay sa kanilang pinaniniwalaan na mangyayari. Ang kasalukuyang nangunguna ay "December 31" sa 19%, sinusundan ng "October 31" sa 12%. Ang mga presyo ay sumasalamin sa real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. Halimbawa, ang isang share na naka-presyo sa 19¢ ay nagpapahiwatig na kolektibong itinatakda ng market ang 19% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Patuloy na nagbabago ang mga odds na ito habang tumutugon ang mga trader sa mga bagong development at impormasyon. Ang mga shares sa tamang outcome ay mare-redeem sa $1 bawat isa sa market resolution.

Sa ngayon, ang "Ang Bab el - Mandeb Strait ay epektibong isinara ng...?" ay naka-generate ng $14.9 million sa kabuuang trading volume mula nang ilunsad ang market noong Mar 16, 2026. Ang antas na ito ng trading activity ay sumasalamin sa malakas na engagement mula sa Polymarket community at tumutulong na matiyak na ang kasalukuyang odds ay sinusuportahan ng malawak na pool ng mga market participant. Maaari mong subaybayan ang live price movements at mag-trade sa anumang outcome nang direkta sa pahinang ito.

Para mag-trade sa "Ang Bab el - Mandeb Strait ay epektibong isinara ng...?," i-browse ang 12 available na outcomes na nakalista sa pahinang ito. Ang bawat outcome ay may kasalukuyang presyo na kumakatawan sa implied probability ng market. Para kumuha ng posisyon, piliin ang outcome na pinaniniwalaan mong pinaka-malamang, piliin ang "Yes" para mag-trade pabor dito o "No" para mag-trade laban dito, ilagay ang iyong halaga, at i-click ang "Trade." Kung tama ang iyong napiling outcome kapag na-resolve ang market, nagbabayad ang iyong "Yes" shares ng $1 bawat isa. Kung mali, nagbabayad ang mga ito ng $0. Maaari ka ring magbenta ng iyong shares anumang oras bago ang resolution kung gusto mong i-lock in ang kita o bawasan ang pagkalugi.

Ang kasalukuyang frontrunner para sa "Ang Bab el - Mandeb Strait ay epektibong isinara ng...?" ay "December 31" sa 19%, ibig sabihin itinatakda ng market ang 19% na tsansa sa outcome na iyon. Ang sumunod na pinaka-malapit na outcome ay "October 31" sa 12%. Nag-a-update ang mga odds na ito sa real-time habang bumibili at nagbebenta ang mga trader ng shares, kaya sinasalamin nila ang pinakabagong kolektibong view kung ano ang pinaka-malamang na mangyari. Bumalik nang madalas o i-bookmark ang pahinang ito para sundan kung paano nagbabago ang odds habang lumilitaw ang bagong impormasyon.

Ang mga resolution rules para sa "Ang Bab el - Mandeb Strait ay epektibong isinara ng...?" ay tiyak na nagde-define kung ano ang kailangang mangyari para sa bawat outcome na maideklara bilang panalo — kasama ang mga opisyal na data source na ginagamit para matukoy ang resulta. Maaari mong i-review ang kumpletong resolution criteria sa "Rules" section sa pahinang ito sa itaas ng mga komento. Inirerekomenda namin na basahin nang mabuti ang mga patakaran bago mag-trade, dahil tinutukoy nila ang mga tiyak na kondisyon, edge cases, at mga source na namamahala kung paano nise-settle ang market na ito.