**Extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA systems has identified no natural meteoroids or asteroids on collision courses capable of delivering 1 megaton or greater impact energy in 2026.** Decades of orbital tracking, refined models, and surveys like Pan-STARRS show the annual probability of such an event remains very low—on the order of once per several centuries—consistent with the last notable airburst (Chelyabinsk, ~0.44 Mt) occurring in 2013. With the year more than three-quarters complete and only small, sub-megaton bolides detected so far, trader consensus at 98.6% “No” reflects verified absence of threats rather than speculation. Realistic remaining scenarios include an undetected long-period comet entering the inner solar system or rare trajectory miscalculations, though both face steep observational and technical barriers before December 31.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
2% tsansa
$117,333 Vol.
$117,333 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
2% tsansa
$117,333 Vol.
$117,333 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA systems has identified no natural meteoroids or asteroids on collision courses capable of delivering 1 megaton or greater impact energy in 2026.** Decades of orbital tracking, refined models, and surveys like Pan-STARRS show the annual probability of such an event remains very low—on the order of once per several centuries—consistent with the last notable airburst (Chelyabinsk, ~0.44 Mt) occurring in 2013. With the year more than three-quarters complete and only small, sub-megaton bolides detected so far, trader consensus at 98.6% “No” reflects verified absence of threats rather than speculation. Realistic remaining scenarios include an undetected long-period comet entering the inner solar system or rare trajectory miscalculations, though both face steep observational and technical barriers before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$117,333Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Mar 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.**Extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA systems has identified no natural meteoroids or asteroids on collision courses capable of delivering 1 megaton or greater impact energy in 2026.** Decades of orbital tracking, refined models, and surveys like Pan-STARRS show the annual probability of such an event remains very low—on the order of once per several centuries—consistent with the last notable airburst (Chelyabinsk, ~0.44 Mt) occurring in 2013. With the year more than three-quarters complete and only small, sub-megaton bolides detected so far, trader consensus at 98.6% “No” reflects verified absence of threats rather than speculation. Realistic remaining scenarios include an undetected long-period comet entering the inner solar system or rare trajectory miscalculations, though both face steep observational and technical barriers before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$117,333Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Mar 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Extensive near-Earth object monitoring by NASA’s CNEOS and ESA systems has identified no natural meteoroids or asteroids on collision courses capable of delivering 1 megaton or greater impact energy in 2026.** Decades of orbital tracking, refined models, and surveys like Pan-STARRS show the annual probability of such an event remains very low—on the order of once per several centuries—consistent with the last notable airburst (Chelyabinsk, ~0.44 Mt) occurring in 2013. With the year more than three-quarters complete and only small, sub-megaton bolides detected so far, trader consensus at 98.6% “No” reflects verified absence of threats rather than speculation. Realistic remaining scenarios include an undetected long-period comet entering the inner solar system or rare trajectory miscalculations, though both face steep observational and technical barriers before December 31.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mag-ingat sa mga external link.
Mga Madalas na Tanong