Near-certain trader consensus on no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 stems from continuous near-Earth object monitoring by NASA and international observatories, which have detected no asteroid or comet of the required roughly 50-meter size on an Earth-intercept trajectory for the remainder of the year. Ongoing surveys using ground- and space-based telescopes, combined with orbital modeling, show no credible impactors matching the energy threshold, supporting the 98.6% implied probability. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes remain limited but include a previously undetected small object arriving from a blind spot in current coverage or an unexpected fragmentation event altering an existing trajectory; however, such cases would require rapid confirmation through additional observations before resolution criteria are met.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
2% tsansa
$117,333 Vol.
$117,333 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
2% tsansa
$117,333 Vol.
$117,333 Vol.
Feb 28, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Near-certain trader consensus on no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 stems from continuous near-Earth object monitoring by NASA and international observatories, which have detected no asteroid or comet of the required roughly 50-meter size on an Earth-intercept trajectory for the remainder of the year. Ongoing surveys using ground- and space-based telescopes, combined with orbital modeling, show no credible impactors matching the energy threshold, supporting the 98.6% implied probability. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes remain limited but include a previously undetected small object arriving from a blind spot in current coverage or an unexpected fragmentation event altering an existing trajectory; however, such cases would require rapid confirmation through additional observations before resolution criteria are met.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Binuksan ang Market: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volume
$117,333Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Mar 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Near-certain trader consensus on no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 stems from continuous near-Earth object monitoring by NASA and international observatories, which have detected no asteroid or comet of the required roughly 50-meter size on an Earth-intercept trajectory for the remainder of the year. Ongoing surveys using ground- and space-based telescopes, combined with orbital modeling, show no credible impactors matching the energy threshold, supporting the 98.6% implied probability. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes remain limited but include a previously undetected small object arriving from a blind spot in current coverage or an unexpected fragmentation event altering an existing trajectory; however, such cases would require rapid confirmation through additional observations before resolution criteria are met.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$117,333Petsa ng Pagtatapos
Mar 1, 2027Binuksan ang Market
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Near-certain trader consensus on no 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 stems from continuous near-Earth object monitoring by NASA and international observatories, which have detected no asteroid or comet of the required roughly 50-meter size on an Earth-intercept trajectory for the remainder of the year. Ongoing surveys using ground- and space-based telescopes, combined with orbital modeling, show no credible impactors matching the energy threshold, supporting the 98.6% implied probability. Realistic scenarios that could still shift outcomes remain limited but include a previously undetected small object arriving from a blind spot in current coverage or an unexpected fragmentation event altering an existing trajectory; however, such cases would require rapid confirmation through additional observations before resolution criteria are met.
Eksperimental na AI-generated summary na nire-reference ang Polymarket data. Hindi ito trading advice at wala itong papel sa kung paano nire-resolve ang market na ito. · Na-update
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