Ongoing martial law, extended through October 31, 2026, and active hostilities block presidential elections under Ukrainian law, allowing constitutional continuity for incumbent Volodymyr Zelenskyy beyond his 2019 term until a successor assumes office. Recent parliamentary votes and Zelenskyy statements emphasize security, logistics for millions abroad, and occupied territories as insurmountable barriers without a sustained ceasefire, which Russia has rejected. Calls for wartime voting by figures like Mykhailo Fedorov have gained little traction, with planned autumn moves abandoned amid rival reluctance. This environment underpins trader consensus at 93.5% against his removal by year-end. A sudden ceasefire enabling rapid polls where challengers like Valeriy Zaluzhnyi prevail remains a low-probability shift.