Traders assign near-certain odds against a U.S. invasion of Mexico in 2026 because no official military deployments, congressional authorizations, or administration announcements have signaled preparations for armed intervention. Bilateral ties remain anchored in diplomacy, trade agreements, and joint efforts on border security and counternarcotics, with both governments prioritizing cooperation over confrontation. Current U.S. foreign policy focuses on alliances and economic partnerships rather than unilateral military action south of the border. While the consensus reflects available evidence, late-breaking escalations in transnational threats or abrupt executive policy reversals could theoretically alter trajectories, though no such catalysts have emerged.