**Trader sentiment reflects high uncertainty in September tornado totals amid the transitional fall pattern, where reduced wind shear and instability typically limit activity to a 1991–2020 average of roughly 66 tornadoes.** With about 20 days remaining, current SPC outlooks indicate only marginal severe risk focused on damaging winds rather than tornadoes across the Ohio Valley and Plains, consistent with climatology showing fewer supercell-favorable environments as the jet stream shifts. Differentiating the closely matched bins hinges on whether late-month setups produce typical scattered events or an outlier driven by Gulf moisture surges, tropical cyclone remnants (which historically spawn dozens in concentrated outbreaks), or an unusually strong low-level jet enhancing shear and CAPE. Historical extremes—from single-digit months to 295 in 2004—underscore the role of these episodic catalysts versus baseline conditions in tipping counts across the 25–124 range or beyond.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วUS Tornadoes in September 2026
US Tornadoes in September 2026
125 or more 50%
Under 25 50%
50 - 74 50%
75 - 124 50%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 14, 2026
Under 25
50%
25 - 49
49%
50 - 74
50%
75 - 124
50%
125 or more
50%
125 or more 50%
Under 25 50%
50 - 74 50%
75 - 124 50%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 14, 2026
Under 25
$10 ปริมาณ
50%
25 - 49
$0 ปริมาณ
49%
50 - 74
$0 ปริมาณ
50%
75 - 124
$0 ปริมาณ
50%
125 or more
$25 ปริมาณ
50%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader sentiment reflects high uncertainty in September tornado totals amid the transitional fall pattern, where reduced wind shear and instability typically limit activity to a 1991–2020 average of roughly 66 tornadoes.** With about 20 days remaining, current SPC outlooks indicate only marginal severe risk focused on damaging winds rather than tornadoes across the Ohio Valley and Plains, consistent with climatology showing fewer supercell-favorable environments as the jet stream shifts. Differentiating the closely matched bins hinges on whether late-month setups produce typical scattered events or an outlier driven by Gulf moisture surges, tropical cyclone remnants (which historically spawn dozens in concentrated outbreaks), or an unusually strong low-level jet enhancing shear and CAPE. Historical extremes—from single-digit months to 295 in 2004—underscore the role of these episodic catalysts versus baseline conditions in tipping counts across the 25–124 range or beyond.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$35วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.**Trader sentiment reflects high uncertainty in September tornado totals amid the transitional fall pattern, where reduced wind shear and instability typically limit activity to a 1991–2020 average of roughly 66 tornadoes.** With about 20 days remaining, current SPC outlooks indicate only marginal severe risk focused on damaging winds rather than tornadoes across the Ohio Valley and Plains, consistent with climatology showing fewer supercell-favorable environments as the jet stream shifts. Differentiating the closely matched bins hinges on whether late-month setups produce typical scattered events or an outlier driven by Gulf moisture surges, tropical cyclone remnants (which historically spawn dozens in concentrated outbreaks), or an unusually strong low-level jet enhancing shear and CAPE. Historical extremes—from single-digit months to 295 in 2004—underscore the role of these episodic catalysts versus baseline conditions in tipping counts across the 25–124 range or beyond.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the monthly tornado count falls within exactly one bracket.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on October 14, 2026 at 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$35วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 31, 2026, 9:39 AM ETผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment reflects high uncertainty in September tornado totals amid the transitional fall pattern, where reduced wind shear and instability typically limit activity to a 1991–2020 average of roughly 66 tornadoes.** With about 20 days remaining, current SPC outlooks indicate only marginal severe risk focused on damaging winds rather than tornadoes across the Ohio Valley and Plains, consistent with climatology showing fewer supercell-favorable environments as the jet stream shifts. Differentiating the closely matched bins hinges on whether late-month setups produce typical scattered events or an outlier driven by Gulf moisture surges, tropical cyclone remnants (which historically spawn dozens in concentrated outbreaks), or an unusually strong low-level jet enhancing shear and CAPE. Historical extremes—from single-digit months to 295 in 2004—underscore the role of these episodic catalysts versus baseline conditions in tipping counts across the 25–124 range or beyond.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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