Recent polling averages place the Partido Popular (PP) well ahead of the PSOE at 31–34% versus 25–27%, with Vox third near 18%, producing consistent projections of a PP-Vox seat majority after the October 5 snap election call for November 29. The move followed legislative gridlock and fallout from the Ceuta migrant influx that lifted Vox while eroding PSOE support. Traders assign PP the highest implied probability because seat math and the D’Hondt system favor the right-wing bloc securing the largest share of Congress seats and forming the next government, while PSOE trails amid coalition uncertainties and no clear path to retaining power. Smaller parties register lower probabilities given limited national reach.