**Current forecast consensus from multiple models points to a maximum temperature of 21–22°C in Madrid on October 7, driven by mild southwesterly flow, partly cloudy conditions, and limited daytime heating under autumnal patterns.** Official guidance, including Met Office and regional ensembles, shows highs around 21°C with possible showers or thunderstorms that may cap peaks near this level, consistent with the market’s leading 46.5% probability on 22°C and 27% on 23°C. These align closely with the long-term October 7 average high of roughly 21.5°C and recent model runs showing no significant warm or cold advection. Traders appear to weigh the narrow uncertainty band from cloud cover and precipitation timing against historical variability, with lower probabilities assigned to outliers beyond 24°C or below 20°C given the stable synoptic setup.