**Forecast models and observational trends point to a peak temperature of 34–35 °C in Guangzhou on September 25 as the most probable outcome.** Multiple short-range forecasts from regional and international sources converge on a daytime maximum near 33–34 °C under partly cloudy conditions with light southerly flow, dew points in the low 20s °C, and only scattered or widely isolated shower chances. This aligns with late-September climatology in the Pearl River Delta, where the long-term average high is about 31 °C and the all-time September 25 record stands at 34.7 °C. Current surface observations on the 24th show readings in the low-to-mid 30s °C with similar moisture profiles, supporting modest warming potential without strong synoptic forcing or significant cloud cover to suppress insolation. Market-implied odds heavily favor 35 °C (46 %) over 34 °C (21.5 %) or 36 °C (21 %), reflecting trader assessment of ensemble spread and the low likelihood of either cooler advection or rapid intensification. Updated model runs and any late-day observational adjustments from the China Meteorological Administration will be the key near-term catalysts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Guangzhou on September 25?
Highest temperature in Guangzhou on September 25?
35°C 46%
36°C 24%
34°C 22%
37°C 6%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 25, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
3%
33°C
3%
34°C
22%
35°C
46%
36°C
24%
37°C
6%
38°C or higher
<1%
35°C 46%
36°C 24%
34°C 22%
37°C 6%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Sep 25, 2026
28°C or below
$95 ปริมาณ
<1%
29°C
$209 ปริมาณ
<1%
30°C
$8 ปริมาณ
<1%
31°C
$50 ปริมาณ
1%
32°C
$210 ปริมาณ
3%
33°C
$178 ปริมาณ
3%
34°C
$667 ปริมาณ
22%
35°C
$1,995 ปริมาณ
46%
36°C
$1,006 ปริมาณ
24%
37°C
$1,251 ปริมาณ
6%
38°C or higher
$746 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and observational trends point to a peak temperature of 34–35 °C in Guangzhou on September 25 as the most probable outcome.** Multiple short-range forecasts from regional and international sources converge on a daytime maximum near 33–34 °C under partly cloudy conditions with light southerly flow, dew points in the low 20s °C, and only scattered or widely isolated shower chances. This aligns with late-September climatology in the Pearl River Delta, where the long-term average high is about 31 °C and the all-time September 25 record stands at 34.7 °C. Current surface observations on the 24th show readings in the low-to-mid 30s °C with similar moisture profiles, supporting modest warming potential without strong synoptic forcing or significant cloud cover to suppress insolation. Market-implied odds heavily favor 35 °C (46 %) over 34 °C (21.5 %) or 36 °C (21 %), reflecting trader assessment of ensemble spread and the low likelihood of either cooler advection or rapid intensification. Updated model runs and any late-day observational adjustments from the China Meteorological Administration will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Sep 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,415วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 25, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47de9d...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models and observational trends point to a peak temperature of 34–35 °C in Guangzhou on September 25 as the most probable outcome.** Multiple short-range forecasts from regional and international sources converge on a daytime maximum near 33–34 °C under partly cloudy conditions with light southerly flow, dew points in the low 20s °C, and only scattered or widely isolated shower chances. This aligns with late-September climatology in the Pearl River Delta, where the long-term average high is about 31 °C and the all-time September 25 record stands at 34.7 °C. Current surface observations on the 24th show readings in the low-to-mid 30s °C with similar moisture profiles, supporting modest warming potential without strong synoptic forcing or significant cloud cover to suppress insolation. Market-implied odds heavily favor 35 °C (46 %) over 34 °C (21.5 %) or 36 °C (21 %), reflecting trader assessment of ensemble spread and the low likelihood of either cooler advection or rapid intensification. Updated model runs and any late-day observational adjustments from the China Meteorological Administration will be the key near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,415วันสิ้นสุด
Sep 25, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Sep 23, 2026, 12:58 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggผู้ตัดสินผล
0x69c47de9d...**Forecast models and observational trends point to a peak temperature of 34–35 °C in Guangzhou on September 25 as the most probable outcome.** Multiple short-range forecasts from regional and international sources converge on a daytime maximum near 33–34 °C under partly cloudy conditions with light southerly flow, dew points in the low 20s °C, and only scattered or widely isolated shower chances. This aligns with late-September climatology in the Pearl River Delta, where the long-term average high is about 31 °C and the all-time September 25 record stands at 34.7 °C. Current surface observations on the 24th show readings in the low-to-mid 30s °C with similar moisture profiles, supporting modest warming potential without strong synoptic forcing or significant cloud cover to suppress insolation. Market-implied odds heavily favor 35 °C (46 %) over 34 °C (21.5 %) or 36 °C (21 %), reflecting trader assessment of ensemble spread and the low likelihood of either cooler advection or rapid intensification. Updated model runs and any late-day observational adjustments from the China Meteorological Administration will be the key near-term catalysts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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